There is a world in which Texas A&M makes the College Football Playoff, but not many people would agree with it unless it runs through its final two games. Auburn has been fine this season and it should have enough to make this a competitive contest. The Aggies opened as -6 point road favorites early in the week with an over/under of 47.5.
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When these teams met a year ago, each side took a completely different approach. Auburn won 28-20 via 193 rushing yards and not much else. Bo Nix threw for 100 yards, but he didn’t do anything overwhelming, which is the story of his career.
Playing from behind most of the way, A&M relied on Kellen Mond, who passed for 335 yards on 49 attempts while they managed just 56 rushing yards as a team. If Auburn can get an early lead again, that’d be the best chance it has of securing another win in this matchup.
Nix Subpar Season
The Tigers have two reasonable losses to Georgia and Alabama, but their third loss to South Carolina is kind of inexcusable.
Otherwise, they’ve looked solid this season against mediocre competition, beating Kentucky, LSU and Tennessee all by double digits. When they play better teams and get behind early, Bo Nix is asked to do more and that’s usually not a good thing.
Nix is having a mostly subpar season, averaging 7.1 yards per pass for 10 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He can be lethal on the ground at times, as he’s totaled 381 rushing yards if you don’t include sacks.
That’s good, but it hasn’t been enough when combined with a ground game led by Tank Bigsby, who has 566 yards on 5.5 yards per carry. That’s fine against some teams, but others, not so much.
This is a game in which Nix will probably have to complete some passes, mainly because A&M is awesome against the run, allowing less than 90 rushing yards per game. If Auburn can’t run the ball, it’ll have to rely on Nix and top wideouts Seth Williams, Anthony Schwartz and Eli Stove. Any time you bet on Nix, it’s usually a nerve-wracking four hours.
Tiger Defense Needs to Step Up
The other side of the ball is where Auburn will hope to win this game, allowing 24.5 points per game. The front isn’t as dominant as last season, so that’ll be the first issue in this matchup, as they’re allowing 4.1 yards per carry and more than 160 rushing yards per game.
Texas A&M isn’t the most explosive team, but Kellen Mond and Isaiah Spiller are a nice one-two duo. Mond doesn’t have great numbers this season, but he isn’t doing stupid things.
He’s averaging 7.3 yards per pass for 16 touchdowns and two interceptions, while Spiller does the rest on the ground, averaging 6.0 yards per carry for 784 yards and six touchdowns.
They’ll likely lean on him early and often, and if that works, A&M will be in business. Spiller has at least 114 rushing yards in four of the last five games and the Aggies have unsurprisingly won all of them but the one against Florida by double digits.
Texas A&M may not be a completely dominant team that deserves to reach the CFP, but it has enough to beat most in the SEC. As long as its defense can stay strong, the Aggies should get enough out of Mond and Spiller to win this game, though a blowout doesn’t seem likely between these teams.
Our Pick – Auburn +6.5