Illinois at Purdue
Purdue is at home Saturday to host Illinois in Big 10 Football action. Purdue is an 11 point favorite in the game with a total of 53. Kickoff is set for 3:30PM EST and the game can be seen on the Big 10 Network.
Purdue is 2-1 on the year with wins over Oregon State and UCONN and a loss last week to Notre Dame, 27-13.
Illinois is 1-3. They beat Nebraska to start their season but have since dropped three straight including a blowout loss to Virginia. They were at least competitive last week against Maryland, losing by just 3.
Head to Head History
head-to-head history (lined games):
10/31/2020 Purdue 31 - 7.0 at Illinois 24
10/26/2019 Illinois 24 + 9.5 at Purdue 6
10/13/2018 Purdue 46 -10.0 at Illinois 7
11/ 4/2017 Illinois 10 +14.0 at Purdue 29
10/ 8/2016 Purdue 34 + 9.0 at Illinois 31
11/ 7/2015 Illinois 48 - 4.0 at Purdue 14
10/ 4/2014 Purdue 38 + 9.0 at Illinois 27
11/23/2013 Illinois 20 - 6.5 at Purdue 16
11/17/2012 Purdue 20 - 6.0 at Illinois 17
10/22/2011 Illinois 14 - 4.0 at Purdue 21
10/30/2010 Purdue 10 +17.0 at Illinois 44
10/24/2009 Illinois 14 +11.0 at Purdue 24
11/11/2006 Purdue 42 - 1.0 at Illinois 31
11/12/2005 Illinois 3 +23.0 at Purdue 37
9/25/2004 Purdue 38 -18.5 at Illinois 30
10/ 4/2003 Illinois 10 +14.0 at Purdue 43
10/12/2002 Purdue 31 - 3.0 at Illinois 38
11/ 3/2001 Illinois 38 + 3.0 at Purdue 13
10/24/1998 Illinois 9 +24.0 at Purdue 42
10/25/1997 Purdue 48 -12.5 at Illinois 3
10/ 1/1994 Purdue 22 +17.0 at Illinois 16
10/ 2/1993 Illinois 28 + 5.0 at Purdue 10
11/ 7/1992 Purdue 17 + 2.5 at Illinois 20
11/ 9/1991 Illinois 41 - 6.5 at Purdue 14
10/13/1990 Purdue 0 +18.5 at Illinois 34
average outcome:
Illinois 23.2 Purdue 25.8
margin = 2.60
time-weighted average outcome:
Illinois 22.3 Purdue 27.0
margin = 4.65
average result when the home team is Purdue
Illinois 21.6 Purdue 22.4
margin = 0.83
average result when the home team is Illinois
Purdue 29.0 Illinois 24.8
margin = -4.23
50.00 % of games went Over
33.33 % went Over at Purdue
(since 2001 )
average total points per game = 49.08
time-weighted average total = 49.26
the home team covered 50.00 % of the time
the road team covered 50.00 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = -5.94
the favorite covered 50.00 % of the time
the underdog covered 50.00 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = 1.15
the favorite won SU 68.00 % of the time
Illinois covered 50.00 % of the time
Purdue covered 50.00 % of the time
Purdue covered 50.00 % of the time at home
Purdue covered 50.00 % of the time as home favorites
Sometimes you have to look at a college football game and simply use a common sense approach. Score prediction models and algorithms are nice, but sometimes you just don’t have enough data to rely on them.
You can learn a lot about teams just by looking at their history against each other. In this case we can clearly see that Illinois and Purdue are generally equal when it comes to recruiting ability. These two programs are always going to have similar talent.
Last year 7 points separated these two teams. They each had over 450 yards of offense. First downs were even and time of possession was even. This is relevant because both teams return 9 on each side of the ball this year. No reason not to expect a close game here, we’ll grab the generous spot with the Illini.