Illinois will host Wisconsin in BIG 10 College football action this Saturday. The Badgers opened as -8.5 point favorites and have been bet up to -11 in spots. The current total is 42.5.
Wisconsin is off to a disappointing start in 2021. They are 1-3, losing games to Michigan, Notre Dame and Penn State. Their lone win came against Eastern Michigan. The Badgers are 0-2 in conference play and in last place in the Big 10 West.
Illinois comes in at 2-4 overall and 1-2 in conference play, ahead of the Badgers in the standings. The Illini beat Nebraska in their opener and also Charlotte last week. Their losses came to Purdue, Virginia, Maryland and UTSA.
Head to Head History
10/23/2020 Illinois 7 +20.0 at Wisconsin 45
10/19/2019 Wisconsin 23 -30.5 at Illinois 24
10/20/2018 Illinois 20 +24.0 at Wisconsin 49
10/28/2017 Wisconsin 24 -28.5 at Illinois 10
11/12/2016 Illinois 3 +25.0 at Wisconsin 48
10/24/2015 Wisconsin 24 - 6.0 at Illinois 13
10/11/2014 Illinois 28 +26.5 at Wisconsin 38
10/19/2013 Wisconsin 56 -14.5 at Illinois 32
10/ 6/2012 Illinois 14 +14.0 at Wisconsin 31
11/19/2011 Wisconsin 28 -14.5 at Illinois 17
10/25/2008 Illinois 17 - 2.5 at Wisconsin 27
10/ 6/2007 Wisconsin 26 + 1.0 at Illinois 31
10/28/2006 Illinois 24 +23.0 at Wisconsin 30
10/29/2005 Wisconsin 41 -19.5 at Illinois 24
10/ 2/2004 Illinois 7 +14.5 at Wisconsin 24
9/27/2003 Wisconsin 38 - 2.5 at Illinois 20
11/ 9/2002 Illinois 37 + 8.5 at Wisconsin 20
10/20/2001 Wisconsin 35 + 4.5 at Illinois 42
10/17/1998 Wisconsin 37 -21.0 at Illinois 3
10/11/1997 Illinois 7 +14.0 at Wisconsin 31
11/23/1996 Wisconsin 35 - 7.0 at Illinois 15
11/25/1995 Illinois 3 + 2.5 at Wisconsin 3
11/19/1994 Illinois 13 + 3.0 at Wisconsin 19
11/20/1993 Wisconsin 35 - 1.0 at Illinois 10
10/31/1992 Illinois 13 + 5.5 at Wisconsin 12
11/ 2/1991 Wisconsin 6 +17.5 at Illinois 22
10/27/1990 Illinois 21 -21.0 at Wisconsin 3
average outcome:
Wisconsin 29.2 Illinois 17.7
margin = -11.52
time-weighted average outcome:
Wisconsin 36.6 Illinois 15.3
margin = -21.31
average result when the home team is Illinois
Wisconsin 31.4 Illinois 20.2
margin = -11.15
average result when the home team is Wisconsin
Illinois 15.3 Wisconsin 27.1
margin = 11.86
61.11 % of games went Over
55.56 % went Over at Illinois
(since 2001 )
average total points per game = 46.85
time-weighted average total = 51.94
the home team covered 55.56 % of the time
the road team covered 44.44 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = -0.52
the favorite covered 55.56 % of the time
the underdog covered 44.44 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = 0.41
the favorite won SU 84.62 % of the time
Wisconsin covered 59.26 % of the time
Illinois covered 40.74 % of the time
Illinois covered 46.15 % of the time at home
Illinois covered 40.00 % of the time as home underdogs
Wisconsin Ready to Explode?
This series is a good one to illustrate talent gaps. Scroll through the history between these teams and you’ll see the odd year or two here and there where Illinois won. But for the most part it’s a series dominated by Wisconsin who will simply always have the better talent.
You have to take into consideration Wisconsin’s schedule so far this year. It’s been one of the toughest in college football so far. They outgained both Penn State and Notre Dame, despite losing. They just might find this Illinois defense to their liking.
Our model predicts a close low scoring game. But we’re going to stay away from this one. We feel this is a spot where Wisconsin could very well come to life and take out their early season frustrations on the Illini.
We’d lean towards under the total here but also think this could be risky. If in fact Wisconsin does come to life here, they could very well exceed the total by themselves. It’s still a talented football team despite their slow start against tough opposition.
This game is a pass for us.