North Carolina will host Wake Forest in ACC college football action this Saturday. Kickoff is set for 12 noon EST. The Tar Heels opened as 1 point favorites and have been bet up to -2.5. The total is 76.5.
Wake Forest keeps finding ways to win. They come into this game undefeated at 8-0 overall and 5-0 in conference play. As impressive as that is, they can’t afford a slip up. NC State is right on their tail at 3-1 and Clemson is still lurking at 4-2.
The Tar Heels are 4-4 overall and 3-3 in conference play. With just 3 conference games remaining, North Carolina obviously needs to win out to have a shot at the conference championship game. But they do still have division leader Pitt on the dance card, next week.
Head to Head History – Wake Forest North Carolina
1/14/2020 Wake Forest 53 +13.5 at North Carolina 59
9/13/2019 North Carolina 18 + 3.0 at Wake Forest 24
10/17/2015 Wake Forest 14 +17.0 at North Carolina 50
9/ 8/2012 North Carolina 27 -10.5 at Wake Forest 28
10/29/2011 Wake Forest 24 + 7.0 at North Carolina 49
10/27/2007 North Carolina 10 + 7.0 at Wake Forest 37
10/28/2006 Wake Forest 24 - 8.0 at North Carolina 17
11/13/2004 North Carolina 31 + 6.0 at Wake Forest 24
11/ 8/2003 Wake Forest 34 - 6.5 at North Carolina 42
10/26/2002 North Carolina 0 + 5.5 at Wake Forest 31
11/10/2001 Wake Forest 32 +14.0 at North Carolina 31
9/ 9/2000 North Carolina 35 -10.0 at Wake Forest 14
11/ 6/1999 Wake Forest 19 - 8.5 at North Carolina 3
10/24/1998 North Carolina 38 - 4.0 at Wake Forest 31
10/11/1997 Wake Forest 12 +22.0 at North Carolina 30
10/ 5/1996 North Carolina 45 -22.0 at Wake Forest 6
10/21/1995 Wake Forest 7 +23.5 at North Carolina 31
11/12/1994 North Carolina 50 -23.0 at Wake Forest 0
10/ 9/1993 Wake Forest 35 +22.0 at North Carolina 45
9/ 5/1992 North Carolina 35 - 8.5 at Wake Forest 17
10/12/1991 Wake Forest 10 +20.5 at North Carolina 24
10/ 6/1990 North Carolina 31 + 5.0 at Wake Forest 24
average outcome:
Wake Forest 22.7 North Carolina 31.9
margin = 9.14
time-weighted average outcome:
Wake Forest 33.2 North Carolina 40.2
margin = 6.96
average result when the home team is North Carolina
Wake Forest 24.0 North Carolina 34.6
margin = 10.64
average result when the home team is Wake Forest
North Carolina 29.1 Wake Forest 21.5
margin = -7.64
50.00 % of games went Over
80.00 % went Over at North Carolina
(since 2002 )
average total points per game = 54.59
time-weighted average total = 73.44
the home team covered 40.91 % of the time
the road team covered 59.09 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = -1.45
the favorite covered 54.55 % of the time
the underdog covered 45.45 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = 2.91
the favorite won SU 77.27 % of the time
Wake Forest covered 45.45 % of the time
North Carolina covered 54.55 % of the time
North Carolina covered 45.45 % of the time at home
North Carolina covered 37.50 % of the time as home favorites
Our model sees this game as a toss up, regardless of the time frame parameters used. Below are score predictions using full season data, the last 4 games and the last 7 games.
Wake Forest 76.5 38 North Carolina -2.5 38 Wake Forest 76.5 57 North Carolina -2.5 54 Wake Forest 76.5 44 North Carolina -2.5 43