Ohio State at Nebraska Free College Football Pick – 11/6/21

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ohio state at nebraska free cfb pick ats
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Nebraska will host Ohio State on Saturday afternoon at 12 noon EST. The Buckeyes are a -15 point road favorite with a total of 65.

Ohio State comes into the game at 7-1 overall and 5-0 in conference play. Fresh off last weeks battle with Penn State, which didn’t go as easy as many “experts” thought. After Nebraska the Buckeyes have Purdue, Michigan and Michigan State waiting in the wings. Things are getting interesting in the Big 10 race!

Nebraska comes into the game at 3-6 overall and just 1-5 in Big 10 action. That places the Cornhuskers in last place in the Big 10 West division. Quite frankly, Nebraska may be the best last place teams ever. All of their losses were by a TD or less and that includes games against Oklahoma, Michigan and Michigan State.

Head to Head History Nebraska – Ohio State

10/24/2020  Nebraska                 17  +26.5  at Ohio State               52
 9/28/2019  Ohio State               48  -17.0  at Nebraska                  7
11/ 3/2018  Nebraska                 31  +17.5  at Ohio State               36
10/14/2017  Ohio State               56  -24.5  at Nebraska                 14
11/ 5/2016  Nebraska                  3  +17.5  at Ohio State               62
10/ 6/2012  Nebraska                 38  + 3.5  at Ohio State               63
10/ 8/2011  Ohio State               27  +10.5  at Nebraska                 34
  
   average outcome:
     Ohio State              49.1  Nebraska                20.6
     margin = -28.57
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Ohio State              50.3  Nebraska                15.7
     margin = -34.61
  
   average result when the home team is Nebraska               
     Ohio State              43.7  Nebraska                18.3
     margin = -25.33
  
   average result when the home team is Ohio State             
     Nebraska                22.3  Ohio State              53.3
     margin =  31.00
  
    71.43 % of games went Over
    66.67 % went Over at Nebraska               
  
   average total points per game =  69.71
   time-weighted average total   =  65.99
  
   the home team covered  42.86 % of the time
   the road team covered  57.14 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  2.00
  
   the favorite  covered  71.43 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  28.57 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = 13.86
  
   the favorite won SU   100.00 % of the time
  
   Ohio State              covered  85.71 % of the time
   Nebraska                covered  14.29 % of the time
  
   Nebraska                covered   0.00 % of the time at home
   Nebraska                covered   0.00 % of the time as home underdogs

Here is the way our model sees the game. The score in the middle prediction g a 46-18 blowout is using data only from the last 4 games. The first score is season to date data and the last score is using data from the last 7 games.

Ohio State               -15.0          29           
Nebraska                  64.0          24
  
Ohio State               -15.0          46           
Nebraska                  64.0          18
  
Ohio State               -15.0          29           
Nebraska                  64.0          22