How to win Betting Football PART 2
I’ve already gone over some ways to come up with your football selections each week in part one of this article. Now let’s take a look at two equally important factors involved in making you a long term winner.
Let’s first look at line value.
A selection is only as good as the number you can get on the Game. Let’s say for example that after doing your work, as described in part one of this article, you ferret out 10 potential plays for the week in college football. These would be plays where your number on the Game differs significantly from the betting line.
your goal on any of your plays should be to obtain the best possible number on the Game. If your handicapping points you to a 5 point underdog, be sure that +5 is the best you could have possibly gotten on the Game. If the Game opened up +7, and the best you can get is +5, you HAVE to pass the Game. Playing that Game at +5 would be like buying a big screen TV for 3000 bucks that was on sale for 2000 bucks the week before. You will NEVER come out ahead in the long run by playing bad numbers. Especially in a case like the example I just gave, where you are missing out on two key numbers in the +7 and +6. Key numbers referring to the high percentage of times Games fall on those key numbers. This is more important in the NFL but still comes into play in college football. 3,6,7,10, etc.etc.
In Our TV example. The guy who buys the TV on sale, in the long run, over the course of a lifetime of buying TV’s, is going to come out ahead of the guy who pays the full price every time and in the process will put that much more money in his pocket. Betting Sports is EXACTLY the same. You absolutely must have the best number on the Games you bet to have any chance of coming out a winner. One of the things that separates the professional sports bettor from the amateur, is that the pro always, always, always gets the best number.
Now the pro will spend thousands of dollars per year to help make sure he gets the best numbers by subscribing to live odds feeds and other information services. This article is geared more towards the weekend warrior who just wants to have a little fun and hopefully make a few bucks in the process. He probably has a full time job and simply doesn’t have the time to watch these numbers every day.
But there’s still hope.
There’s a method you can use that will take no more than a few minutes per week and will have you only betting Games at the best possible prices. Simply chart the opening lines each week. You can use any sportsbook to do this. Open your sportsbook account the day they post their lines, either Sunday night or Monday morning, and write down all the openers.
Then check back on Saturday morning and again write down the lines. You’ll quickly be able to see which Games moved and in which direction. Perhaps Alabama opened as a 6 point favorite over Auburn, but on Saturday morning the line is now Bama -8.
Now take a look at the Games that you’re handicapping pointed out at POTENTIAL plays. Let’s say Auburn was a potential play of yours. Well, that’s great news for you, because you can now get +8 on the Game that earlier in the week was only +6!! In this case, you’d go ahead and play Auburn +8 or better. You would have a play that your handicapping says is solid, AND you’re getting VALUE in the line that has moves two points in your favor. That translates into long term profits.
On the flip side, suppose your handicapping zeroed in on as Alabama as a potential play. Only in this case, you’d be laying -8 whereas it was only -6 on Monday. In this case you have to PASS the Game. (remember the TV example). The pro, who bets for a living, played the Game on Monday at -6.
By eliminating the Games where you’re giving away line value, and betting only the Games where you are getting the best number, you’ll be betting just like the pro.
This is also one reason why sports services, as a whole, lose. They give out selections without any regard for the line. They are under pressure to give out plays each and every day because of their marketing efforts. They don’t pass on Games. They play every Monday night, etc.etc…..they think nothing of giving out Alabama -8 even though they were -6 earlier in the week.
I hope I have driven home the point here. Which is to insure that you make all your bets at the best possible line!
Lastly, money management.
There is probably not a professional sports bettor in the world that doesn’t use some form of the Kelly system. AKA The Kelly Criterion. Explaining this in detail would take several more articles. Do a google search on it and get ready to do some reading.
But for the recreational player, I will give you a very simple method of money management which is actually based on the Kelly system.
For football, wager 5% of your bankroll per play, and never more than 25% of your bankroll on any one session. If you have $5000 set aside for football bets, you would be start out by wagering $250 per play and no more than $1250 per session.
your bet size will automatically adjust each week according to you bankroll. If you’re winning, you’ll end up betting more. If your losing, your bets will be reduced. Using those percentages, it will be automatic. Very simple.
For baseball and basketball, you’ll want to reduce the percentage to 2 or 3% per play.
There you have it. It may seem like allot, but after practicing all the techniques in these two articles, they will be 2nd nature. Like tying your shoes. More importantly, following the methods laid out in these two articles will make you one tough player for the sportsbooks to beat.
You’ll enjoy betting on sports allot more knowing you’re getting the best of it and giving yourself every opportunity to win. As times goes on, who knows, maybe you’ll end up being one of the few “pro’s” I referred to above.
Good luck this football season!!!!!