Princeton will host Harvard tonight in Ivy League basketball action with the 19-5 overall Tigers chasing Yale for the top spot in the League. Princeton is 12-1 at home this year and is favored by -7.5 at betonline. The total is 142.
Below is the head to head matchup history followed by predictions from our model.
head-to-head history (lined games):
2/21/2020 Princeton 60 + 7.5 at Harvard 61
2/ 1/2020 Harvard 69 - 1.0 at Princeton 70
3/ 2/2019 Princeton 58 + 6.5 at Harvard 66
2/15/2019 Harvard 78 + 2.0 at Princeton 69
2/23/2018 Harvard 72 + 1.5 at Princeton 66
2/ 9/2018 Princeton 51 + 2.0 at Harvard 66
3/ 3/2017 Harvard 69 + 7.5 at Princeton 73
2/ 4/2017 Princeton 57 - 2.0 at Harvard 56
3/ 4/2016 Princeton 71 - 7.0 at Harvard 73
2/ 5/2016 Harvard 62 +10.0 at Princeton 83
2/21/2015 Princeton 55 + 9.0 at Harvard 63
1/30/2015 Harvard 75 - 4.5 at Princeton 72
2/22/2014 Harvard 59 - 2.5 at Princeton 47
1/31/2014 Princeton 76 + 8.0 at Harvard 82
3/ 1/2013 Harvard 53 + 6.0 at Princeton 58
2/16/2013 Princeton 57 + 2.0 at Harvard 69
2/24/2012 Princeton 64 +10.5 at Harvard 67
2/11/2012 Harvard 62 - 6.0 at Princeton 70
3/12/2011 Princeton 63 + 2.5 vs Harvard 62
3/ 5/2011 Princeton 67 + 5.0 at Harvard 79
2/ 4/2011 Harvard 61 + 2.0 at Princeton 65
3/ 6/2010 Harvard 51 + 2.5 at Princeton 54
2/ 5/2010 Princeton 56 + 8.0 at Harvard 53
2/20/2009 Harvard 55 + 5.0 at Princeton 58
1/31/2009 Princeton 77 + 6.0 at Harvard 71
2/22/2008 Princeton 67 + 4.5 at Harvard 74
2/ 2/2008 Harvard 54 + 1.5 at Princeton 68
2/24/2007 Princeton 43 - 1.5 at Harvard 50
2/ 9/2007 Harvard 68 +10.5 at Princeton 74
2/25/2006 Harvard 48 + 2.0 at Princeton 75
2/10/2006 Princeton 60 + 7.5 at Harvard 59
3/ 4/2005 Harvard 44 + 9.0 at Princeton 66
2/ 5/2005 Princeton 57 - 6.0 at Harvard 61
3/ 5/2004 Princeton 60 -11.0 at Harvard 51
2/ 7/2004 Harvard 50 +21.5 at Princeton 58
2/22/2003 Princeton 67 - 3.0 at Harvard 66
1/31/2003 Harvard 61 +10.5 at Princeton 67
2/16/2002 Harvard 59 + 9.5 at Princeton 70
1/11/2002 Princeton 50 + 0.0 at Harvard 48
2/23/2001 Harvard 48 + 8.0 at Princeton 62
2/10/2001 Princeton 69 + 0.0 at Harvard 67
average outcome:
Harvard 62.0 Princeton 63.7
margin = 1.66
time-weighted average outcome:
Harvard 67.2 Princeton 64.4
margin = -2.79
average result when the home team is Princeton
Harvard 59.9 Princeton 66.3
margin = 6.35
average result when the home team is Harvard
Princeton 61.1 Harvard 64.1
margin = 3.00
43.59 % of games went Over
47.37 % went Over at Princeton
(since 2002 )
average total points per game = 125.66
time-weighted average total = 131.59
the home team covered 55.00 % of the time
the road team covered 45.00 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = 1.06
the favorite covered 35.90 % of the time
the underdog covered 64.10 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = -0.99
the favorite won SU 71.79 % of the time
Harvard covered 48.78 % of the time
Princeton covered 51.22 % of the time
Princeton covered 55.00 % of the time at home
Princeton covered 50.00 % of the time as home favorites
last 8 results:
2/19 Princeton 81 at Yale 75 OV 146.5
2/18 Princeton 69 at Brown 50 UN 144.0
2/12 Dartmouth 40 at Princeton 85 UN 140.5
2/ 5 Princeton 85 at Columbia 63 UN 154.0
2/ 4 Princeton 83 at Cornell 88 OV 157.5
1/29 Yale 80 at Princeton 74 OV 149.0
1/22 Princeton 84 at Dartmouth 80 OV 133.5
1/17 Pennsylvania 64 at Princeton 74 UN 146.5
***
2/19 Cornell 72 at Harvard 77 OV 147.5
2/18 Columbia 54 at Harvard 62 UN 145.5
2/12 Harvard 74 at Pennsylvania 82 OV 140.5
2/ 9 Yale 62 at Harvard 59 UN 140.5
2/ 5 Harvard 55 at Yale 58 UN 142.5
2/ 4 Harvard 65 at Brown 50 UN 140.0
1/28 Pennsylvania 78 at Harvard 74 OV 140.0
1/22 Harvard 61 at Cornell 76 UN 154.0
OUR MODEL
Harvard 142.5 62 Princeton -7.5 80 Full season data Harvard 142.5 46 Princeton -7.5 86 Last 4 games data Harvard 142.5 63 Princeton -7.5 72 Last 7 games data
This time of year, as we head towards the conference tournaments and March Madness, the most important score prediction of our model’s results would be the one using data from the last 7 games.
The full season data could have results baked into the prediction that aren’t relevant right now. Injuries, team chemistry, etc. The prediction using 4 games worth of data can be useful however 4 games is the bare minimum when using statistics to handicap a basketball game.
The 7 game prediction is ideal. It’s a large enough sample size to iron out a one game fluke and it really gives you a good indication of a teams current form which is crucial this time of year.
We like Princeton here. They have 3 games remaining with tonight and tomorrow being against Harvard before they closeout the year at Penn. They’re coming off a road win over 1st place Yale and we expect that winning to continue as they make their final push and head towards tournament play.