Maryland at Nebraska Big 10 Basketball Pick ATS – 2/18/22

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maryland at nebraska big 10 hoops pick ats
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Maryland will host Nebraska in Big 10 college hoops action tonight. It’s not exactly a marquee matchup as these two are basement dwellers in the Big 10. The Terps are 11-14 overall,  3-11 in conference play and 2-5 on the road. The Cornhuskers are 7-18 overall, 1-13 in conference and 7-10 at home.

Maryland is favored by -2 with a total of 146 at betonline. Below we’ll list some head to head stats along with predictions from our model.

Head to Head

head-to-head history (lined games):
  
 2/17/2021  Nebraska                 71  +10.5  at Maryland                 79
 2/16/2021  Nebraska                 50  +10.0  at Maryland                 64
 2/11/2020  Nebraska                 70  +17.5  at Maryland                 72
 3/14/2019  Nebraska                 69  + 6.5  vs Maryland                 61
 2/ 6/2019  Maryland                 60  + 2.5  at Nebraska                 45
 1/ 2/2019  Nebraska                 72  + 1.5  at Maryland                 74
 2/13/2018  Maryland                 66  + 1.0  at Nebraska                 70
 1/ 1/2017  Nebraska                 67  + 7.5  at Maryland                 65
 3/11/2016  Nebraska                 86  + 8.0  vs Maryland                 97
 2/ 3/2016  Maryland                 70  - 5.5  at Nebraska                 65
 3/ 8/2015  Maryland                 64  - 2.5  at Nebraska                 61
 2/19/2015  Nebraska                 65  + 8.0  at Maryland                 69
  
   average outcome:
     Maryland                70.1  Nebraska                65.9
     margin =  -4.17
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Maryland                69.7  Nebraska                65.1
     margin =  -4.56
  
   average result when the home team is Nebraska               
     Maryland                65.0  Nebraska                60.3
     margin =  -4.75
  
   average result when the home team is Maryland               
     Nebraska                65.8  Maryland                70.5
     margin =   4.67
  
    40.00 % of games went Over
    25.00 % went Over at Nebraska               
  
   average total points per game = 136.00
   time-weighted average total   = 134.78
  
   the home team covered  40.00 % of the time
   the road team covered  60.00 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -5.30
  
   the favorite  covered  41.67 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  58.33 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -4.42
  
   the favorite won SU    75.00 % of the time
  
   Maryland                covered  41.67 % of the time
   Nebraska                covered  58.33 % of the time
  
   Nebraska                covered  50.00 % of the time at home
   Nebraska                covered  50.00 % of the time as home underdogs
last 8 results: 
  
    2/13  Nebraska                 75  at  Iowa                     98    OV 159.0
    2/ 9  Minnesota                65  at  Nebraska                 78    UN 143.5
    2/ 5  Northwestern             87  at  Nebraska                 63    OV 146.5
    2/ 1  Nebraska                 79  at  Michigan                 85    OV 142.0
    1/29  Rutgers                  63  at  Nebraska                 61    UN 138.5
    1/27  Wisconsin                73  at  Nebraska                 65    UN 145.0
    1/17  Indiana                  78  at  Nebraska                 71    OV 146.5
    1/14  Nebraska                 65  at  Purdue                   92    OV 155.0
  
   ***
  
    2/13  Maryland                 61  at  Purdue                   62    UN 147.5
    2/10  Iowa                    110  at  Maryland                 87    OV 146.0
    2/ 6  Maryland                 67  at  Ohio State               82    OV 138.0
    2/ 1  Michigan State           65  at  Maryland                 63    UN 136.5
    1/29  Indiana                  68  at  Maryland                 55    UN 133.0
    1/25  Maryland                 68  at  Rutgers                  60    UN 132.5
    1/21  Illinois                 65  at  Maryland                 81    OV 137.5
    1/18  Maryland                 64  at  Michigan                 83    OV 136.5

 

Our Model 

Maryland                  -2.0          74           
Nebraska                 145.5          69 using full season data
  
Maryland                  -2.0          92           
Nebraska                 145.5          77 using last 4 games data
  
Maryland                  -2.0          78           
Nebraska                 145.5          69 using last 7 games data

 

As you can see, the model likes Maryland to cover the small spot here regardless of the time frame parameters used. Normally that would be enough to strongly consider the Terps here.

However, we’d advise caution. A team like Nebraska has to look at this spot as one of it’s only remaining opportunities to grab a win. Their only remaining home game this season is against Iowa, a game they aren’t going to win. The rest of their games are on the road against Ohio St, Wisconsin, Penn State and Northwestern.

We’re going to do something we rarely do here and that’s go against our model when the model has such a strong opinion (all 3 predictions favoring MD). We expect Nebraska to pull out all stops tonight and scratch and claw their way to one more conference win at home.

Nebraska +2