Maryland will host Nebraska in Big 10 college hoops action tonight. It’s not exactly a marquee matchup as these two are basement dwellers in the Big 10. The Terps are 11-14 overall, 3-11 in conference play and 2-5 on the road. The Cornhuskers are 7-18 overall, 1-13 in conference and 7-10 at home.
Maryland is favored by -2 with a total of 146 at betonline. Below we’ll list some head to head stats along with predictions from our model.
Head to Head
head-to-head history (lined games):
2/17/2021 Nebraska 71 +10.5 at Maryland 79
2/16/2021 Nebraska 50 +10.0 at Maryland 64
2/11/2020 Nebraska 70 +17.5 at Maryland 72
3/14/2019 Nebraska 69 + 6.5 vs Maryland 61
2/ 6/2019 Maryland 60 + 2.5 at Nebraska 45
1/ 2/2019 Nebraska 72 + 1.5 at Maryland 74
2/13/2018 Maryland 66 + 1.0 at Nebraska 70
1/ 1/2017 Nebraska 67 + 7.5 at Maryland 65
3/11/2016 Nebraska 86 + 8.0 vs Maryland 97
2/ 3/2016 Maryland 70 - 5.5 at Nebraska 65
3/ 8/2015 Maryland 64 - 2.5 at Nebraska 61
2/19/2015 Nebraska 65 + 8.0 at Maryland 69
average outcome:
Maryland 70.1 Nebraska 65.9
margin = -4.17
time-weighted average outcome:
Maryland 69.7 Nebraska 65.1
margin = -4.56
average result when the home team is Nebraska
Maryland 65.0 Nebraska 60.3
margin = -4.75
average result when the home team is Maryland
Nebraska 65.8 Maryland 70.5
margin = 4.67
40.00 % of games went Over
25.00 % went Over at Nebraska
average total points per game = 136.00
time-weighted average total = 134.78
the home team covered 40.00 % of the time
the road team covered 60.00 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = -5.30
the favorite covered 41.67 % of the time
the underdog covered 58.33 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = -4.42
the favorite won SU 75.00 % of the time
Maryland covered 41.67 % of the time
Nebraska covered 58.33 % of the time
Nebraska covered 50.00 % of the time at home
Nebraska covered 50.00 % of the time as home underdogs
last 8 results:
2/13 Nebraska 75 at Iowa 98 OV 159.0
2/ 9 Minnesota 65 at Nebraska 78 UN 143.5
2/ 5 Northwestern 87 at Nebraska 63 OV 146.5
2/ 1 Nebraska 79 at Michigan 85 OV 142.0
1/29 Rutgers 63 at Nebraska 61 UN 138.5
1/27 Wisconsin 73 at Nebraska 65 UN 145.0
1/17 Indiana 78 at Nebraska 71 OV 146.5
1/14 Nebraska 65 at Purdue 92 OV 155.0
***
2/13 Maryland 61 at Purdue 62 UN 147.5
2/10 Iowa 110 at Maryland 87 OV 146.0
2/ 6 Maryland 67 at Ohio State 82 OV 138.0
2/ 1 Michigan State 65 at Maryland 63 UN 136.5
1/29 Indiana 68 at Maryland 55 UN 133.0
1/25 Maryland 68 at Rutgers 60 UN 132.5
1/21 Illinois 65 at Maryland 81 OV 137.5
1/18 Maryland 64 at Michigan 83 OV 136.5
Our Model
Maryland -2.0 74 Nebraska 145.5 69 using full season data Maryland -2.0 92 Nebraska 145.5 77 using last 4 games data Maryland -2.0 78 Nebraska 145.5 69 using last 7 games data
As you can see, the model likes Maryland to cover the small spot here regardless of the time frame parameters used. Normally that would be enough to strongly consider the Terps here.
However, we’d advise caution. A team like Nebraska has to look at this spot as one of it’s only remaining opportunities to grab a win. Their only remaining home game this season is against Iowa, a game they aren’t going to win. The rest of their games are on the road against Ohio St, Wisconsin, Penn State and Northwestern.
We’re going to do something we rarely do here and that’s go against our model when the model has such a strong opinion (all 3 predictions favoring MD). We expect Nebraska to pull out all stops tonight and scratch and claw their way to one more conference win at home.