Illinois vs. Rutgers College Basketball Pick- 2/16/22

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illinois vs. rutgers cbb pick ats
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Rutgers will host Illinois in Big 10 college basketball action tonight. Illinois is ranked 12th in the country and is in 1st place in the Big 10 with an overall record of 18-6, a conference record of 11-3 and a road record of 5-3. Rutgers is 15-9 overall and 12-2 at home.

The Illini are -4 point road favorites with a current total of 134.5 at betonline.

Below we’ll take a look at some head to head stats followed by our model’s predictions.

Head to Head

head-to-head history (lined games):
  
12/ 3/2021  Rutgers                  51  + 9.0  at Illinois                 86
 3/12/2021  Rutgers                  68  + 8.0  vs Illinois                 90
12/20/2020  Illinois                 88  - 1.5  at Rutgers                  91
 2/15/2020  Illinois                 57  + 4.0  at Rutgers                  72
 1/11/2020  Rutgers                  51  + 5.5  at Illinois                 54
 2/ 9/2019  Rutgers                  94  + 6.0  at Illinois                 99
 2/25/2018  Illinois                 75  - 2.0  at Rutgers                  62
 1/30/2018  Rutgers                  60  + 6.5  at Illinois                 91
 3/ 4/2017  Illinois                 59  - 5.5  at Rutgers                  62
 2/16/2016  Rutgers                  66  +15.0  at Illinois                 82
 2/ 3/2016  Illinois                110  - 6.5  at Rutgers                 101
 2/ 3/2015  Rutgers                  54  +11.0  at Illinois                 66
11/26/2005  Rutgers                  57  + 8.0  vs Illinois                 77
  
   average outcome:
     Illinois                79.5  Rutgers                 68.4
     margin = -11.15
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Illinois                79.7  Rutgers                 69.0
     margin = -10.71
  
   average result when the home team is Rutgers                
     Illinois                77.8  Rutgers                 77.6
     margin =  -0.20
  
   average result when the home team is Illinois               
     Rutgers                 62.7  Illinois                79.7
     margin =  17.00
  
    70.00 % of games went Over
    66.67 % went Over at Rutgers                
  
   average total points per game = 147.92
   time-weighted average total   = 148.78
  
   the home team covered  63.64 % of the time
   the road team covered  36.36 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  7.77
  
   the favorite  covered  69.23 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  30.77 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  6.65
  
   the favorite won SU    84.62 % of the time
  
   Illinois                covered  61.54 % of the time
   Rutgers                 covered  38.46 % of the time
  
   Rutgers                 covered  60.00 % of the time at home
   Rutgers                 covered 100.00 % of the time as home favorites
last 8 results: 
  
    2/12  Rutgers                  73  at  Wisconsin                65    OV 130.5
    2/ 9  Ohio State               64  at  Rutgers                  66    UN 135.0
    2/ 5  Michigan State           63  at  Rutgers                  84    OV 134.0
    2/ 1  Rutgers                  78  at  Northwestern             79    OV 132.5
    1/29  Rutgers                  63  at  Nebraska                 61    UN 138.5
    1/25  Maryland                 68  at  Rutgers                  60    UN 132.5
    1/22  Rutgers                  65  at  Minnesota                68    OV 127.5
    1/19  Iowa                     46  at  Rutgers                  48    UN 150.5
  
   ***
  
    2/13  Northwestern             66  at  Illinois                 73    UN 140.0
    2/ 8  Illinois                 68  at  Purdue                   84    OV 146.0
    2/ 5  Illinois                 74  at  Indiana                  57    UN 137.0
    2/ 2  Wisconsin                67  at  Illinois                 80    OV 137.0
    1/29  Illinois                 59  at  Northwestern             56    UN 138.5
    1/25  Michigan State           55  at  Illinois                 56    UN 142.0
    1/21  Illinois                 65  at  Maryland                 81    OV 137.5
    1/17  Purdue                   96  at  Illinois                 88    OV 147.0
  

 

Our Model

Illinois                   -4          70           
Rutgers                 134.5          59 full season data
  
Illinois                   -4          62           
Rutgers                 134.5          73 last 4 games data
  
Illinois                   -4          64           
Rutgers                 134.5          63 last 7 games data

 

These two met back in December with Illinois winning in blow out fashion 86-51. If you look at our model’s prediction which uses data from the entire season, it shows the Illini with an 11 point road win and cover.

However, we refer to current form often when handicapping college basketball. When you look at the predictions using data from the last 7 and last 4 games you see a 1 point Illinois win and an outright Rutgers win.

In fact, the Scarlet Knights are playing way above their season rating recently with wins over Wisconsin, Michigan State and Ohio State.

Rutgers is a live dog here. We’ll grab the +4.

Rutgers +4