Rutgers will host Illinois in Big 10 college basketball action tonight. Illinois is ranked 12th in the country and is in 1st place in the Big 10 with an overall record of 18-6, a conference record of 11-3 and a road record of 5-3. Rutgers is 15-9 overall and 12-2 at home.
The Illini are -4 point road favorites with a current total of 134.5 at betonline.
Below we’ll take a look at some head to head stats followed by our model’s predictions.
Head to Head
head-to-head history (lined games):
12/ 3/2021 Rutgers 51 + 9.0 at Illinois 86
3/12/2021 Rutgers 68 + 8.0 vs Illinois 90
12/20/2020 Illinois 88 - 1.5 at Rutgers 91
2/15/2020 Illinois 57 + 4.0 at Rutgers 72
1/11/2020 Rutgers 51 + 5.5 at Illinois 54
2/ 9/2019 Rutgers 94 + 6.0 at Illinois 99
2/25/2018 Illinois 75 - 2.0 at Rutgers 62
1/30/2018 Rutgers 60 + 6.5 at Illinois 91
3/ 4/2017 Illinois 59 - 5.5 at Rutgers 62
2/16/2016 Rutgers 66 +15.0 at Illinois 82
2/ 3/2016 Illinois 110 - 6.5 at Rutgers 101
2/ 3/2015 Rutgers 54 +11.0 at Illinois 66
11/26/2005 Rutgers 57 + 8.0 vs Illinois 77
average outcome:
Illinois 79.5 Rutgers 68.4
margin = -11.15
time-weighted average outcome:
Illinois 79.7 Rutgers 69.0
margin = -10.71
average result when the home team is Rutgers
Illinois 77.8 Rutgers 77.6
margin = -0.20
average result when the home team is Illinois
Rutgers 62.7 Illinois 79.7
margin = 17.00
70.00 % of games went Over
66.67 % went Over at Rutgers
average total points per game = 147.92
time-weighted average total = 148.78
the home team covered 63.64 % of the time
the road team covered 36.36 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = 7.77
the favorite covered 69.23 % of the time
the underdog covered 30.77 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = 6.65
the favorite won SU 84.62 % of the time
Illinois covered 61.54 % of the time
Rutgers covered 38.46 % of the time
Rutgers covered 60.00 % of the time at home
Rutgers covered 100.00 % of the time as home favorites
last 8 results:
2/12 Rutgers 73 at Wisconsin 65 OV 130.5
2/ 9 Ohio State 64 at Rutgers 66 UN 135.0
2/ 5 Michigan State 63 at Rutgers 84 OV 134.0
2/ 1 Rutgers 78 at Northwestern 79 OV 132.5
1/29 Rutgers 63 at Nebraska 61 UN 138.5
1/25 Maryland 68 at Rutgers 60 UN 132.5
1/22 Rutgers 65 at Minnesota 68 OV 127.5
1/19 Iowa 46 at Rutgers 48 UN 150.5
***
2/13 Northwestern 66 at Illinois 73 UN 140.0
2/ 8 Illinois 68 at Purdue 84 OV 146.0
2/ 5 Illinois 74 at Indiana 57 UN 137.0
2/ 2 Wisconsin 67 at Illinois 80 OV 137.0
1/29 Illinois 59 at Northwestern 56 UN 138.5
1/25 Michigan State 55 at Illinois 56 UN 142.0
1/21 Illinois 65 at Maryland 81 OV 137.5
1/17 Purdue 96 at Illinois 88 OV 147.0
Our Model
Illinois -4 70 Rutgers 134.5 59 full season data Illinois -4 62 Rutgers 134.5 73 last 4 games data Illinois -4 64 Rutgers 134.5 63 last 7 games data
These two met back in December with Illinois winning in blow out fashion 86-51. If you look at our model’s prediction which uses data from the entire season, it shows the Illini with an 11 point road win and cover.
However, we refer to current form often when handicapping college basketball. When you look at the predictions using data from the last 7 and last 4 games you see a 1 point Illinois win and an outright Rutgers win.
In fact, the Scarlet Knights are playing way above their season rating recently with wins over Wisconsin, Michigan State and Ohio State.
Rutgers is a live dog here. We’ll grab the +4.
Rutgers +4