Penn State will host Michigan State tonight in Big 10 College hoops action. The Spartans come in at 18-6 overall (5-2 on the road) while the Nittany Lions are 9-12 overall and 7-4 at home. Michigan State is favored by -2.5 with a total of 129.5 at betonline.
Below are some matchup stats for this game including a look at these teams head to head historically, followed by the results from our college basketball model.
Head to Head
head-to-head history (lined games):
12/11/2021 Penn State 64 +10.0 at Michigan State 80
2/ 9/2021 Penn State 58 + 4.0 at Michigan State 60
3/ 3/2020 Michigan State 79 - 1.0 at Penn State 71
2/ 4/2020 Penn State 75 + 8.5 at Michigan State 70
1/13/2019 Michigan State 71 - 8.0 at Penn State 56
1/31/2018 Penn State 68 +13.5 at Michigan State 76
3/ 9/2017 Penn State 51 + 6.5 vs Michigan State 78
1/ 7/2017 Penn State 72 + 5.0 vs Michigan State 63
2/28/2016 Penn State 57 +17.5 at Michigan State 88
1/10/2016 Michigan State 92 -10.0 at Penn State 65
1/21/2015 Penn State 60 +12.0 at Michigan State 66
2/ 6/2014 Penn State 67 +13.5 at Michigan State 82
12/31/2013 Michigan State 79 - 7.0 at Penn State 63
1/16/2013 Michigan State 81 -11.0 at Penn State 72
2/ 8/2012 Penn State 57 +14.5 at Michigan State 77
3/12/2011 Penn State 61 + 3.0 vs Michigan State 48
2/10/2011 Penn State 57 + 6.0 at Michigan State 75
1/ 8/2011 Michigan State 62 - 6.0 at Penn State 66
3/ 4/2010 Penn State 65 +13.0 at Michigan State 67
2/13/2010 Michigan State 65 - 6.5 at Penn State 54
2/ 1/2009 Penn State 72 +12.5 at Michigan State 68
1/14/2009 Michigan State 78 - 6.0 at Penn State 73
2/20/2008 Penn State 49 +15.5 at Michigan State 86
2/ 2/2008 Michigan State 76 -11.5 at Penn State 85
1/20/2007 Michigan State 91 - 2.5 at Penn State 64
1/28/2006 Penn State 60 +19.5 at Michigan State 69
3/ 5/2005 Penn State 64 +26.5 at Michigan State 90
1/ 5/2005 Michigan State 84 -14.5 at Penn State 58
2/28/2004 Michigan State 67 -10.5 at Penn State 42
1/14/2004 Penn State 58 +16.5 at Michigan State 76
1/22/2003 Penn State 36 +17.0 at Michigan State 70
1/19/2002 Michigan State 77 - 7.5 at Penn State 65
3/ 9/2001 Penn State 65 +14.0 vs Michigan State 63
2/24/2001 Michigan State 76 - 7.5 at Penn State 57
1/ 3/2001 Penn State 73 +16.0 at Michigan State 98
average outcome:
Michigan State 75.1 Penn State 62.3
margin = -12.80
time-weighted average outcome:
Michigan State 74.5 Penn State 64.0
margin = -10.44
average result when the home team is Penn State
Michigan State 77.0 Penn State 63.6
margin = -13.36
average result when the home team is Michigan State
Penn State 61.2 Michigan State 76.4
margin = 15.18
58.06 % of games went Over
61.54 % went Over at Penn State
(since 2002 )
average total points per game = 137.37
time-weighted average total = 138.51
the home team covered 41.94 % of the time
the road team covered 58.06 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = -2.61
the favorite covered 57.14 % of the time
the underdog covered 42.86 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = 2.11
the favorite won SU 80.00 % of the time
Michigan State covered 57.14 % of the time
Penn State covered 42.86 % of the time
Penn State covered 28.57 % of the time at home
Penn State covered 28.57 % of the time as home underdogs
Results from our model
Michigan State -3.0 63 Penn State 129.5 61 using full season data Michigan State -3.0 56 Penn State 129.5 59 using last 4 games data Michigan State -3.0 63 Penn State 129.5 60 using last 7 games data
As you can see, our model predicts a close game. The three predictions are using data from different time frames but the results stay pretty consistent with Michigan State predicted to win by a nose in two of the three predictions and one calling for an outright Penn State win.
Michigan State has been playing below their season ratings the last few games which is why the prediction using only data from the last 4 games has Penn St on top. Current form is important in college hoops. There could be some value on Penn State at +3 or better and going under 129.5 may be worth a shot as well.