Michigan State at Penn State College Hoops Pick ATS – 2/15/22

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mich state at penn state cbb pick ats
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Penn State will host Michigan State tonight in Big 10 College hoops action. The Spartans come in at 18-6 overall (5-2 on the road) while the Nittany Lions are 9-12 overall and 7-4 at home. Michigan State is favored by -2.5 with a total of 129.5 at betonline.

Below are some matchup stats for this game including a look at these teams head to head historically, followed by the results from our college basketball model.

Head to Head

head-to-head history (lined games):
  
12/11/2021  Penn State               64  +10.0  at Michigan State           80
 2/ 9/2021  Penn State               58  + 4.0  at Michigan State           60
 3/ 3/2020  Michigan State           79  - 1.0  at Penn State               71
 2/ 4/2020  Penn State               75  + 8.5  at Michigan State           70
 1/13/2019  Michigan State           71  - 8.0  at Penn State               56
 1/31/2018  Penn State               68  +13.5  at Michigan State           76
 3/ 9/2017  Penn State               51  + 6.5  vs Michigan State           78
 1/ 7/2017  Penn State               72  + 5.0  vs Michigan State           63
 2/28/2016  Penn State               57  +17.5  at Michigan State           88
 1/10/2016  Michigan State           92  -10.0  at Penn State               65
 1/21/2015  Penn State               60  +12.0  at Michigan State           66
 2/ 6/2014  Penn State               67  +13.5  at Michigan State           82
12/31/2013  Michigan State           79  - 7.0  at Penn State               63
 1/16/2013  Michigan State           81  -11.0  at Penn State               72
 2/ 8/2012  Penn State               57  +14.5  at Michigan State           77
 3/12/2011  Penn State               61  + 3.0  vs Michigan State           48
 2/10/2011  Penn State               57  + 6.0  at Michigan State           75
 1/ 8/2011  Michigan State           62  - 6.0  at Penn State               66
 3/ 4/2010  Penn State               65  +13.0  at Michigan State           67
 2/13/2010  Michigan State           65  - 6.5  at Penn State               54
 2/ 1/2009  Penn State               72  +12.5  at Michigan State           68
 1/14/2009  Michigan State           78  - 6.0  at Penn State               73
 2/20/2008  Penn State               49  +15.5  at Michigan State           86
 2/ 2/2008  Michigan State           76  -11.5  at Penn State               85
 1/20/2007  Michigan State           91  - 2.5  at Penn State               64
 1/28/2006  Penn State               60  +19.5  at Michigan State           69
 3/ 5/2005  Penn State               64  +26.5  at Michigan State           90
 1/ 5/2005  Michigan State           84  -14.5  at Penn State               58
 2/28/2004  Michigan State           67  -10.5  at Penn State               42
 1/14/2004  Penn State               58  +16.5  at Michigan State           76
 1/22/2003  Penn State               36  +17.0  at Michigan State           70
 1/19/2002  Michigan State           77  - 7.5  at Penn State               65
 3/ 9/2001  Penn State               65  +14.0  vs Michigan State           63
 2/24/2001  Michigan State           76  - 7.5  at Penn State               57
 1/ 3/2001  Penn State               73  +16.0  at Michigan State           98
  
   average outcome:
     Michigan State          75.1  Penn State              62.3
     margin = -12.80
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Michigan State          74.5  Penn State              64.0
     margin = -10.44
  
   average result when the home team is Penn State             
     Michigan State          77.0  Penn State              63.6
     margin = -13.36
  
   average result when the home team is Michigan State         
     Penn State              61.2  Michigan State          76.4
     margin =  15.18
  
    58.06 % of games went Over
    61.54 % went Over at Penn State             
    (since        2002 )
  
   average total points per game = 137.37
   time-weighted average total   = 138.51
  
   the home team covered  41.94 % of the time
   the road team covered  58.06 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -2.61
  
   the favorite  covered  57.14 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  42.86 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  2.11
  
   the favorite won SU    80.00 % of the time
  
   Michigan State          covered  57.14 % of the time
   Penn State              covered  42.86 % of the time
  
   Penn State              covered  28.57 % of the time at home
   Penn State              covered  28.57 % of the time as home underdogs

Results from our model

Michigan State            -3.0          63           
Penn State               129.5          61 using full season data
  
Michigan State            -3.0          56           
Penn State               129.5          59 using last 4 games data
  
Michigan State            -3.0          63           
Penn State               129.5          60 using last 7 games data

 

As you can see, our model predicts a close game. The three predictions are using data from different time frames but the results stay pretty consistent with Michigan State predicted to win by a nose in two of the three predictions and one calling for an outright Penn State win.

Michigan State has been playing below their season ratings the last few games which is why the prediction using only data from the last 4 games has Penn St on top. Current form is important in college hoops. There could be some value on Penn State at +3 or better and going under 129.5 may be worth a shot as well.