Cincinnati
vs.
Ohio State
College Football
Free Pick
9/27/14
Ohio State is still one of the hardest teams to read in the country due to their quarterback situation. They squeaked out a cover against Navy, lost at home to Virginia Tech and then blew out a bad Kent State team. We still don’t know what to expect from J.T. Barrett this season. Nevertheless, the Buckeyes opened as -13 point favorites at 5 dimes sportsbook and have been bet up to -15.5.
Barrett has thrown an interception in every Game and it took a beating of Kent State to get his TD total above his INTs. If the Bearcats ever get ahead, can Barrett lead the team to a win? When asked to do more, he struggled against Virginia Tech. Will he be asked to do more in this Game? ACCording to the spread, probably not.
The Bearcats have only played two Games with both being at home against MAC teams. Beating winless Miami (OH) by only a touchdown doesn’t give much confidence to bettors, but then again a 24-point win against a better Toledo squad looks somewhat promising.
To disguise Barrett’s deficiencies, Ohio State will run from the start. There are certain circumstances when Urban Meyer will let Barrett take over; if the Buckeyes are winning comfortably or need points. That starts with running backs Ezekiel Elliott and Curtis Samuel, both with 27 carries on the year. Barrett will use his legs as well if needed.
If Toledo can rush for 240 yards against Cincy, there’s no doubt Ohio State should have no problems getting their ground Game going, as well. If that’s the case, the Buckeyes have the immediate edge because their weak spot on offense is Barrett, the quarterback. They couldn’t run against Virginia Tech and ended up losing.
Another interesting factor to look at is Cincinnati’s offense, which has been surprisingly good to start the year (against bad defenses). Quarterback Gunner Kiel, formerly of Notre Dame has been excellent in his first season, throwing for 689 yards, 10 TDs and 2 INTs in just two Games. He would love to have a good Game against his old team’s rival.
While Kiel has been great, the Bearcats haven’t been running well, which is usually their strong suit. Hosey Williams has been okay with 114 yards, but hasn’t scored, while Tion Green is averaging only Four yards per carry. Ohio State’s defense hasn’t shown much yet and it wouldn’t be surprising if Kiel continued to put points on the board for Cincy. If Michael Brewer and the Hokies can do it, why not Kiel and the Bearcats?
There is still a ton of unknowns about Ohio State, but when going against a mediocre defense, they almost always have the edge. Now we’ll get to find out if the defense can stop a mediocre offense.
Ohio State is currently ranked #22nd in the nation. No doubt that ranking is a result of who they are, as opposed to what they have done on the field. This is a spot where a big win would add some legitiMACy to that ranking and likely boost them even higher. Urban Meyer is well aware of that fact and will extend the margin here if possible.
We think Ohio State does extend the margin here, but use caution. This is a spot where you could have bet -13, -13.5, and -14 had you acted earlier in the week. Those are the numbers the sharp bettors took. The not so sharp bettors will lay -14.5 all the way up to -16 or so, as of Wednesday. Ultimately, that’s the difference between the two groups.
So, if the number comes back down, we’ll take Ohio State -14 or better. At -14.5 or higher, it’s just an opinion.