Michigan
vs.
Michigan State
College Football
Pick – Analysis
10/25/14
This Game may still mean something to both of these teams, but its significance on a national level is pretty low. That is, unless the Wolverines can pull off the improbable upset. The Spartans are -17 point home favorites at 5 dimes sportsbook, which is the third biggest underdog that Michigan has ever been.
Michigan is coming off a bye and a win which is the only thing going in their favor at the moment. Before that, they lost three straight Games against mediocre competition, losing by double-digits to Utah and Minnesota at home and then at Rutgers. The Wolverines somewhat redeemed themselves in an ugly 18-13 win over Penn State. In their only Game against a ranked team this season, they lost 31-0 to Notre Dame.
The Spartans have had problems of their own, but it hasn’t really hurt them yet. They do have the loss to Oregon, and have slipped up somewhat in the past few weeks. Whether they close the Game slow or start slow, MSU hasn’t put together a complete Game against a relevant team yet. With all that said, Michigan State is still 4-3 ATS and Michigan is 3-4.
MSU head coach Mark Dantonio made it a mission to win this Game every year since he became the Spartans coach, and even with Ohio State on the docket next Game, one would have to think that this could be the Spartans first complete-Game performance. They have covered six straight in this matchup, while winning outright in five of those Games. Last season it was ugly as MSU won 29-6 as only 4-point favorites. This is the biggest line between these teams since 2006.
With how the Michigan offense has looked this year, scoring 21.7 points per Game, it’s a wonder how they’ll keep up here. Devin Gardner returned to the starting role against PSU and was okay, but he’s still an inaccurate passer. In last year’s Game, Gardner finished with 18 carries for -46 yards (includes sacks). Michigan’s run Game has also been problematic which should continue here. It seems like the Wolverines can only succeed when Devin Funchess gets looks in the receiving Game and the MSU defense knows this.
The other end is probably the only way Michigan can keep this Game close. Their defense hasn’t been terrible this year, although they haven’t been good. They still haven’t allowed more than 31 points on the year, at least.
The Spartans, however, are scoring at a ridiculous rate of 47 points per Game. In year’s past, it’s been their run Game that takes the lead, and while they are still burning on the ground, Connor Cook has been great at quarterback. While he’s still only completing 61.4% of his passes, his 16 TDs and 5 INTs to go with 9.32 yards per attempt make him one of the best in the conference. Then he has wide receiver Tony Lippett (786 yards, 8 TDs), who is probably one of the best in the country. In the run Game, they have spread the ball around more, with Nick Hill (465 yards, 6 TDs) getting more touches), but it’s still Jeremy LAngford’s show as he’s hit 100 yards in Four straight Games now.
If Michigan State does put a full Game together, they should be able to cover, but it’s not like Michigan is going to lay down in this rivalry. If they could upset MSU in this Game with the current season they’re having, that would be something.
The Wolverines are 5-1 ATS in their last six Big Ten Games, but just 10-23-1 ATS in their last 34 road Games. The Spartans are 5-1 ATS in their last six home Games and are an interesting 21-4-2 ATS in their last 27 Games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in the previous Game. The under has hit in the last five meetings between these schools to go along with MSU’s dominance of late.
The Spartans are obviously the better team however the Wolverines are desperate and could be dangerous. We aren’t in the habit of laying big numbers and won’t do it here. If Purdue can come within 17 against Michigan State, so too can the Wolverines. Michigan +17