Michigan
vs.
Notre Dame
College Football
Pick with Analysis
9/6/14
No matter where these teams are at record-wise, this Game always seems to be close. The last six meetings between Michigan and Notre Dame have all had a spread of six points or less. This year is no different as the Fighting Irish are -4.5 point favorites at home at 5 dimes sportsbook.
Both teams covered their Games last week, with both being equally impressive. It was important for ND to get out to a good start after the recent suspensions, as well as Everett Golson to pick up where he left off with five TDs to his name. So far, so good. Michigan’s dominant showing and a 13-of-14 day from Devin Gardner may have been more impressive, though.
Gardner was the difference maker in last year’s 41-30 win for the Wolverines throwing for Four TDs and rushing for another with 376 total yards through the air and ground. The main reason the Wolverines came out on top, however, was because of their run defense and Notre Dame’s inability to get anything going on the ground. That forced Tommy Rees into 51 pass attempts. Golson’s mobility could end up being a huge factor in this Game as well as his deep ball.
The Fighting Irish don’t have a dominant running back, but showed last week that they have a few options that can move the ball along with Golson. And the loss of top wide receiver DeVaris Daniels didn’t matter last week, but that could be a storyline in this one and throughout the season for Notre Dame.
Michigan’s offense will get its first real test and it could decide how successful this team will be. Gardner wasn’t trusted all that much towards the end of last season, but if he comes through in this one and gets a road upset, that could be huge for his confidence and what the Wolverines can do in the Big Ten.
Running back Derrick Green and receiver Devin Funchess will be Notre Dame’s main areas of concern. The Wolverines will try and get a ground Game going early to help out Gardner, and his favorite target is Funchess, who finished with seven grabs and three TDs last weekend.
Big things are expected from Golson, which is one of the main reasons his team is in the rankings and a 4.5-point favorite in this one. Will he be able to outplay Gardner? Something Rees couldn’t do.
The Wolverines are just 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 road Games, but 4-1 ATS in their last five overall. The Fighting Irish are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, and have the same record in their last five home Games against a team with a winning road record. In this matchup, the home team has covered six of the last seven times, while Michigan is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
It’s hard not to recommend the dog in this series especially considering recent history. However, I think Notre Dame was the better team last year, despite the loss to this Michigan team in their week 2 Game. Considering the talent is largely the same this time around, we’ll side with Notre Dame to get some revenge for last season and cover while they’re at it. Notre Dame -4.5