Auburn
vs.
Alabama
SEC
College Football
Pick – Analysis
11/29/14
This Game may not be as big as the last time these teams played, but it is still pretty relevant. A win for Alabama locks them into the SEC title Game and one step further to the College Football Playoff. Auburn has slipped in the last few weeks, but that’s not going to stop them from trying to win back-to-back Games in this meeting. The Crimson Tide are a solid -9.5 point home favorite in the Iron Bowl as seen at Sportsbook.ag
Despite having a loss at Ole Miss, Alabama is still considered the best team in the country by many. They have eked out road wins against Arkansas and LSU, while dominating in pretty much every home Game. They only beat Mississippi State by five points, but they were in control the entire Game. With how the Tide are playing, a blowout win wouldn’t be surprising against this reeling Auburn team.
The Tigers have suddenly fallen off the map, which is a bit surprising. After winning at Ole Miss, things were looking great, but then they lost at home to Texas A&M as 23.5-point favorites. Then they followed that up with a bad loss to Georgia. Auburn’s defense has been brutal and the offense hasn’t looked unstoppable as of late. This team has struggled in road Games, and that could continue here.
Last year’s matchup was a Game that Alabama really should have won, but Auburn ended up pulling out a late win that finished with a ridiculous return TD off a missed field goal. Both offenses moved the ball in that Game, and we could see the same thing here if Auburn can get their ground Game going.
The Tigers have failed to cover in three straight and Nick Marshall’s passing inefficiencies have come to light even more. If the ground Game doesn’t move the ball consistently, this team will have trouble and that’s what happened against Georgia. Cameron Artis-Payne (1,405 yards, 11 TDs) and Marshall (731 yards, 11 TDs) are having a great season one the ground, but when their defense gives up points for free, they need a passing Game at some point. WR Duke Williams is questionable to play in this one and would be a boost for Marshall.
Alabama is stout as usual stopping the run and you know they want revenge on last year’s loss. If they can keep Auburn’s rushing attack in check, this could be an ugly Game.
On the other end, it’s unlikely the Tide will be stopped on ground or through air. TJ Yeldon (758 yards, 6 TDs) should be back for this Game and combined with Derrick Henry (682 yards, 7 TDs), it’s hard to see this duo being stopped. Throw in Blake Sims, who’s been fairly consistent and safe this year (25 total TDs, 4 INTs) along with one of the best receivers in the Game, Amari Cooper (1,349 yards, 11 TDs), and this Auburn defense is in trouble.
Auburn can stay in this Game as long as the ground Game can find room like in last year’s matchup. If not, then it could be a long day.
The Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last six Games and don’t really have any positive trends. The Crimson Tide are in the same boat at just 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 Games overall and 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine home Games.
The last two times Auburn beat Alabama, the Tide answered with 36-0 and 42-14 wins. Not that motivation should be a problem for this Game, but a little revenge in a rivalry Game never hurt and you know Alabama has been looking towards this Game since the very second the clock struck zero a year ago. Alabama -9.5