Auburn
vs.
Georgia
Free
College Football
Pick – Analysis
11/15/14
The season isn’t over for these teams yet, but two recent upset losses hurt their chances of reaching the College Football Playoff, and both were in a good position for it. This is Georgia’s last SEC Game and with a win, could end up winning the East because Missouri still has three Conference Games to go. The Bulldogs are -2.5 home favorites at 5 Dimes.
This could be Georgia’s toughest Game of the year, as they have one of the easiest Schedules in the SEC. Their two losses on the season are against teams (South Carolina, Florida) with a combined 6-8 SEC record. They have some blowout wins on the year at Missouri, Kentucky, and even against Clemson in their first Game, but this team is still up and down. The Bulldogs haven’t played at home since Oct. 4 so this will be an anxious crowd.
Auburn (4-2 in SEC) still has an outside shot of winning the SEC West, but their chances are much slimmer than Georgia’s. After this road Game, the Tigers still have to travel to Alabama to close out the season. Their loss at Texas A&M was kind of unexplainable as they were 23.5-point favorites. The defense fell apart and they fumbled twice in the final few minutes, one on the goal line. They still have a top offense, but if the defense continues to get gashed, that won’t matter much.
This Game could shape up to be exactly like last year’s crazy 43-38 win for Auburn. It was a high-scoring Game that needed a lucky 73-yard TD pass from Nick Marshall to win the Game. Auburn ran right through the Georgia defense, which will probably happen again. The difference this year is that the Bulldogs will take a heavier run approach after Aaron Murray attempted 49 passes last year.
The big news for this Game is that Todd Gurley, maybe the best running back in the country, is returning. Auburn’s main defensive weakness is in the secondary, but it’s not like their run defense is outstanding.
Gurley and backup Nick Chubb figure to get a ton of a carries and there’s no reason to think that Auburn can stop them. Gurley will be hungry and ready, so expect a big Game from him. Hutson Mason is throwing well this year, and it could come down to him at some point.
It’s going to be the same situation on the other end as Georgia does not have a great run defense either, giving up 418 yards to Florida a couple weeks ago. With Nick Marshall and Cameron Artis-Payne leading the charge, this team should easily put up points. The downfall to this offense is Marshall’s inaccuracy as a passer. But if Auburn gets an early lead, they won’t have to worry about that.
Expect points in this Game, with the edge going to the home team. In the end, however, it may come down to who has the ball last again, or whoever is luckier.
The Tigers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 Conference Games, 15-5 ATS in their last 20 overall, but only 1-4 ATS in their last five Games on grass. The Bulldogs are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 home Games and 1-4 ATS in their last five Games following an ATS win. The favorite has covered five straight times in this matchup, with the home team going 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.
Providing that last weeks loss hasn’t taken the wind out of Auburns sails, we prefer the Tigers in this spot. We’re much more impressed with Auburns wins over Kansas State, LSU and Ole Miss, than anything Georgia has done this year. Auburn +2.5 (be nice to get +3 or better)