Auburn
vs.
Ole Miss
SEC
College Football
Pick – Analysis
11/1/14
The potential for a monumental matchup is gone after Ole Miss lost last weekend, but this Game still features two Top 10 teams. With only about a month to go in the season, the SEC West is still a logjam with Four teams having a chance to win the division. Playing at home, the Rebels are -2.5 point favorites at 5 Dimes sportsbook.
Auburn may have the higher ranking, but there isn’t much to separate these teams, only that Ole Miss lost more recently. Conveniently, the same team that the Rebels just lost to (LSU), Auburn dismantled 41-7 a month ago. However, it hasn’t been all smooth sailing for the Tigers, losing their next Game at Mississippi State and then struggling to separate from South Carolina last week. This team hasn’t looked great on the road yet, so it’ll be interesting to see how Auburn plays here, as they still have Georgia and Alabama on the road this season.
Ole Miss already has a big home win this year, taking out Alabama in the beginning of October. However, the loss at LSU could be huge for their final College Football Playoff chances. Their offense looked inept in that Game, and they were surprisingly beat up on the ground by LSU. The Rebels’ run defense will need to play a lot better against the run-heavy Auburn in this one.
In the Tigers’ only two true road Game this year, they are scoring just 21.5 points per Game. In all other Games, they are scoring 46.4 per Game. That is quite the difference and it’s not like the Ole Miss defense is a slouch. This Game is going to be a battle. If the Rebels can get an early lead and eventually force Nick Marshall to pass the ball, the advantage goes to Ole Miss. Marshall is not a great passer when pressured into certain situations. He completed less than 50% of his passes for 2 TDs and 2 INTs in the loss at Mississippi State if that says anything when they were trailing most of the Game. Sure, Marshall and Cameron Artis-Payne are great out of the backfield, but this Game may come down to what Marshall can do in the passing Game.
Playing at home, coming off a loss, the Rebels defense will not be easy to beat. They lead the nation in points allowed at 10.5 per Game and are even better at home. An injury of note, one of their best defensive players, linebacker Denzel Nkemdiche, is likely out for the season.
The question may come down to what the offense can do for Ole Miss. It helps that Auburn’s defense hasn’t looked great, allowing 73 points in the last two Games, but the Rebels are not a high-scoring unit.
That weakness showed up last week at LSU. Bo Wallace (18 TDs, 7 INTs) is an average quarterback that needs to play with a lead, much like Nick Marshall. The problem for the Rebels is that their running Game isn’t great either. They average 3.9 yards per carry as a team, led by Jaylen Walton (376 yards) and I’Tavius Mathers (221 yards). It won’t be easy to hold down Auburn all Game, so Wallace will need to make some plays to win this one.
Auburn has had the edge in recent matchups, winning eight of the last 10, and they won last year at home 30-22, despite Wallace throwing for 336 yards. Auburn’s 282 yards on the ground were too much to overcome.
The Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last five Games overall, but 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Conference Games. The Rebels are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine Games overall and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 following an ATS loss. The home team has covered in five of the last six meetings between these schools, while the over has hit seven of the last eight times these teams play in Mississippi.
We’re using the side in this one as a Key Release, so no opinion on the side in this write up. However, the total in this one also looks worth a shot. Ole Miss of course has a great defense but while Auburn is known more for it’s offense, they too, have a very good defense. The total here is 51 which we think leaves plenty of room for an Under. Under 51