Baylor
vs.
Texas
Big 12
College Football
Pick with Analysis
10/4/14
Charlie Strong’s Texas defense finally came around last week and recorded a shutout… against Kansas. Now, they have to deal with back-to-back Games against Baylor and Oklahoma. Baylor opened as a -13 point road favorite at 5 dimes sportsbook and was bet all the way up to -17 before bouncing back down to where it sits now at -15 on Wednesday night when this is being written. The total is 57.
The Bears were set to cover their Fourth straight Game of the year against Iowa State last weekend, but pulled Bryce Petty in the Fourth quarter and were left with a push. This team hasn’t really been tested yet and it’s unlikely they will be here, even on the road for their third straight Game.
The Longhorns are another story. They are coming off a 23-0 win at Kansas, but you can’t really put much into that Game as it also led to the Jayhawks firing head coach Charlie Weis. They aren’t a good team. Texas still had a respectable 20-17 loss to UCLA a few weeks ago, but also played against a backup QB most of the way.
Baylor won this matchup pretty easily last year 30-10. They outgained Texas by almost 300 yards in that Game.
Bryce Petty, while dealing with some cracked bones in his spine, is still in the Heisman conversation, but has a long way to go. His efficiency numbers are on par with where he was last year, but his TD total will likely be less due to his injury. Still, Petty is completing 65.3% of his passes for 7 TDs and had one INT last weekend. He also had two rushing touchdowns against ISU, so it’s safe to say he’s feeling better.
Shock Linwood leads the RBs with 301 yards and 7 TDs and KD Cannon leads the WRs with 519 yards and 5 TDs, but it doesn’t really matter who the players are in this offense. Whoever steps in can be pretty productive which is what we’ve seen throughout the last few years for the Bears.
The same can’t be said for the Texas offense. QB Tyrone Swoopes has looked better in recent weeks but still has a ways to go. It doesn’t help that the Longhorns’ running Game isn’t doing all that well with Johnathan Gray (4.4 YPC) and Malcolm Brown (3.6 YPC). John Harris (25 receptions) and Jaxon Shipley (26 rec.) are the only two targets that Swoopes has really used in the passing Game.
The Bears are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 Games on field turf and 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 Big 12 Games. The Longhorns don’t have any positive trends in their favor and are 1-4 ATS in their last five following an ATS win. Baylor has covered in the last Four meetings between these schools.
For now, we are going to pass on the side here. If we don’t use this Game as a key release, we’ll be back here on Friday afternoon with a pick on this Game. We’ll leave you with a lean on the total. Don’t be surprised if this one has a little less scoring than anticipated. With that in mind, we’ll lean towards UNDER 57.