BC FSU Football Pick

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Boston College


Florida State

College Football

Pick – Analysis


Florida State is the team that everybody wants to see lose. Despite being undefeated with a 10-0 record, everyone seems to have a complaint about FSU, bettors included. The Seminoles close out the season with two straight home Games. They are -20 point favorites against Boston College for this one at sportsbook.ag.

Florida State just keeps on winning, although they only sport a 3-7 against the spread record. There’s no denying that the Seminoles know how to win, though. They have an overtime win (without Jameis Winston) to go with three other wins by single-digits. This isn’t the same team from a year ago that often blew out opposing teams.

And even with the big spread here, FSU hasn’t won a Game by more than 20 points since beating Wake Forest 43-3 back on Oct. 4.

Boston College gave Florida State one of its tougher challenges last year in a 48-34 Game. Can they do it again?

The Eagles haven’t been bad this year, no matter what this Game’s spread says. They have a big win against USC earlier in the season and have yet to lose on the road, which is a bit surprising. Boston College has beaten NC State, Wake Forest and Virginia Tech all on the road. BC’s biggest loss came in their last Game before their bye, losing 38-19 to Louisville.

BC isn’t great, but they aren’t terrible and teams ranging from NC State to Louisville have given the ‘Noles trouble this season.

One thing Boston College can’t do is get down early because their passing Game is close to non-existent. This is a run-first team with Tyler Murphy at quarterback. He’s completing less than 55% of his passes for just nine TDs and 10 INTs. But on the ground, Murphy leads the Eagles with 1,006 yards and six TDs, while running back Jon Hilliman has a stout 620 yards and 11 TDs.

Much like last year when BC ran for 200 yards against FSU, that will be their best route of attack.

As for stopping Jameis Winston, that’s another story. Boston College has played great defense this season, and while they gave up 38 points to Louisville last Game, the Cardinals only had one scoring drive of more than 44 yards. Four interceptions thrown by Murphy killed the team.

Winston hasn’t been invisible this year either, throwing 18 TDs to go along with 12 INTs. Interceptions continue to haunt him as he’s thrown seven in the last Four Games. The main playmakers to watch out for are running backs Karlos Williams and Dalvin Cook (16 combined TDs), as well as WR Rashad Greene (1,042 yards). All three of them can break open drives with their speed.

But combine interceptions and a weaker defense, and you have closer Games. That’s exactly what’s happened to Florida State as they’ve allowed at least 20 points in five straight Games.

The Eagles are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 Games following an ATS loss, but only 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road Games. The Seminoles are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 overall and 1-4 ATS in their last five home Games, but 5-1 ATS in their last six home Games vs. a team with a winning road record. The underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings between these schools.

Other than Wake Forest, Florida State hasn’t blown anyone off the field this year. Likewise, BC has been a tough opponent every time they have taken the field. No reason to think those trends won’t continue this week. Florida State also has to contend with coming off a very emotionally draining win on the road at Miami last week. It’s not likely they’ll have the same intensity this week, especially early on. At +21 would could be come very interested in BC. For now though, we’ll make small recommendations on BC + in the 1st quarter, 1st half and the full Game at +19.

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