California
vs.
USC
PAC-12
College Football
Pick with Analysis
11/15/14
It wasn’t the greatest of weekends for USC even though they were on a bye. All three of their competitors in the Pac-12 South won on Saturday: Arizona State, UCLA and Arizona. With the season winding down, the Hail Mary loss against the Sun Devils may come back to haunt them. For this one, the Trojans sit as -14 point favorites at 5 Dimes sportsbook and opened at -12 at betonline.
USC, as expected, has had the edge over California in this series for quite some time now. The last time the Golden Bears won in this matchup was in overtime back in 2003. That’s 10 straight losses for Cali, and they’ve only scored more than 17 points in one of those Games. That happened to be last year when USC won on the road 62-28.
Surprisingly, that Game was close yardage wise, but a couple punt returns along with a blocked punt for TDs swayed the Scoreline. USC could do whatever they wanted on offense, averaging 8.8 yards per carry and 11 yards per pass. California picked up plenty of yards, but in double the amount of plays.
The Golden Bears have been somewhat of a surprise this year with their 5-4 overall record and three Conference wins. Keep in mind they went 1-11 last year with the only win against Portland State. The reason for improvement has mainly been a better and more consistent offense that is finishing Games strong. Their defense is still brutal, but offensively, they are scoring 41.9 points per Game.
The Trojans have been up and down through the year, but when putting it all together, are a tough team to play. against similar teams like Colorado and Washington State, teams that can Scorebut lack defensively, the Trojans haven’t had any problems winning comfortably in both.
Quarterback Jared Goff and the rest of the California offense cannot turn the ball over if they want to compete in this Game. So far, Goff has been great this year with 27 touchdowns and only Four interceptions. He spreads the ball around as well, which makes it difficult for the defense with five players having at least 27 catches for the year and a few more with around 20. The Bears’ run Game has also picked up this year, with Daniel Lasco going for 796 yards and 10 TDs. That helped a lot in their most recent win at Oregon State.
USC has a solid defense, but if Goff takes care of the football, they will be able to move it on the Trojans. And if Lasco can get any kind of room on the ground, Cali can keep it close.
However, on the other end, Cody Kessler and this offense have feasted on inferior defenses throughout the year. against the Buffs and Cougars, Kessler threw for a combined 12 touchdowns. We could easily see another huge Game from Kessler because the California secondary won’t be stopping guys like Nelson Agholor or JuJu Smith anytime soon. Keep in mind, Cali allows almost 40 points per Game, and has given up at least 49 in Four of their seven Pac-12 Games.
While Kessler beats up on the weaker teams, the USC offense is actually more of a running unit. Javorius Allen is one of the best backs in the country and he has 1,124 yards and eight TDs. He’s been held in check in only one Game this year, and that was surprisingly at Boston College.
Much like last year, USC has the ability to put this Game out of reach early, especially with a couple of early stops.
The Golden Bears have covered in Four straight road Games, but are only 6-15 ATS in their last 21 Conference Games and 3-12 ATS in their last 15 Games on grass. The Trojans are 4-1 ATS in their last five home Games and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 Conference Games. In this matchup, USC has covered in eight of the last nine Games. The last two of which had spreads more than 14 points.
No question USC is the better football team here. Our model has USC winning this Game by a large margin and covering regardless of the parameters we use. However, this is a spot where we disagree with the model. Cal is motivated with the potential of becoming Bowl eligible after winning just 1 Game a year ago. They have only been shut down offensively once this year, a 31-7 loss to Washington. Otherwise, they have scored at least 31+ points every time they have taken the field this year which makes them a very dangerous underdog getting double digits. California +14 or better.