Colorado Oregon Football Pick

173
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Colorado

vs.

Oregon

College Football

Pick – Analysis

11/22/14

Oregon is coasting at this point with two of the weaker Pac-12 teams remaining on its Schedule. The Ducks are probably already looking toward the Conference title Game, which may or may not be a good thing. Currently this Game is off the board at most sportsbooks due to the status of QB Sefo Liufau who was listed as questionable with a concussion. He is now probable. Check for a current line on this Game at betonline or 5 dimes sportsbook.

Last year’s matchup was ugly as Oregon put 57 points on the board along with 756 total yards. With how Colorado’s defense has looked this year, there’s no reason that can’t happen again.

Colorado is still winless in the Pac-12 with a 2-8 overall record. They have been more competitive this season and a lot of that has been because of Liufau at quarterback. Even if their defense gives up loads of points, the Buffs are scoring almost 30 points per Game.

Oregon is sitting with a nice 9-1 record, with its only loss being at home to Arizona. In every other home Game for the Ducks, and even every other Game on the road as well, it’s been smooth sledding. Still, this team is only 6-4 ATS and that’s mainly because of the defense. against weaker teams, they seem to let up a bit, most notably Washington State (31 points), California (41 points) and Utah (27 points).

Betting this Game may rely on the status of quarterback Liufau. If Gehrke starts, the amount of people on Oregon will rise, as well as the spread. Liufau has thrown an interception in nine straight Games, but that’s because the Buffs are losing in every Game. He’s still completing 65.8% of his passes with 26 TDs and 14 INTs. As a sophomore, he has really come on and has a bright future with the Buffs. Colorado has an OK running Game, but no back has more than 400 yards and they only have 10 rushing TDs as a team.

In limited action, Gehrke is 11-of-26 for 106 yards on the year. When he came in last Game after Liufau’s concussion, Gehrke went 0-for-5 against Arizona.

This looks like the perfect Game for Marcus Mariota to cement his status as the Heisman frontrunner. It’s almost a lock that the Ducks will reach at least 40 points and Mariota will have plenty of touchdowns. He’s completing 67.1% of his passes on the year for 29 TDs and just two picks. On the ground, Mariota has 524 yards and eight TDs.

If you’re betting this Game, make sure to confirm the status of Sefo Liufau first because the drop-off at QB could easily be the difference in who covers.

The Buffaloes are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 Conference Games, but only 6-15 ATS in their last 21 road Games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Ducks have covered in five straight Games and are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 off a bye week. In the last three matchups between these two, the Ducks have scored at least 45 points and covered in each one with every spread surpassing 30 points.

Our Score Prediction model has Oregon winning by 40 to 50 points with a total of anywhere from 90 to 100 total points scored. Whoa! No play for us.

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