Duke
vs.
Miami
ACC
College Football
Free Pick
9/27/14
Is Duke underrated? That’s the question we may get answered after their Game with Miami (FL). The Blue Devils haven’t really been challenged yet in their first Four Games, while the Hurricanes have already faced two tough opponents on the road. This line has been all over the place. It opened at Miami -6 and was initially bet down to -4 before getting hammered all the way back up to -7 even -7.5 at sportsbook.ag. As of this writing on Thursday, it looks as though it may be on the way back down again as there’s a -6.5 on the board.
Duke is 4-0, but they haven’t really been challenged yet. Of course, playing against lower level schools along with Kansas isn’t really the greatest preparation for a team like Miami.
The Hurricanes have only covered once so far this season in a home Game against Arkansas State. They opened with a 31-13 loss at Louisville to start and are coming off a 41-31 loss at Nebraska last weekend. How different are these teams from a year ago?
The Blue Devils got a big win at home last season, stacking on the points in a 48-30 win. It was the first time in a long time that Duke upset Miami. Even as touchdown underdogs, they still have a chance to pull another upset this season.
Duke ran for 358 yards in that Game with Anthony Boone having to do little in the passing Game. Last weekend, the Cornhuskers rushed for 353 yards against the ‘Canes.
So far, the Blue Devils have been solid in both facets of the Game, but those numbers are hard to gauge when playing against weaker teams. Shaun Wilson leads the team with 404 yards and a ridiculous 14.4 yards per carry. However, he’s not the lead RB as those duties will fall to Josh Snead and Shaquille Powell, with Wilson playing more of a change-of-pace role. If Duke can get their running Game going again, which is very possible, this Game is there for the taking.
Anthony Boone has been solid at QB as well with 7 TDs and only 1 interception. He has options with Jamison Crowder and Max McCaffrey in the passing Game, but can those kinds of numbers continue in ACC play? It remains to be seen.
Even with a new quarterback, Miami can still Scorethe ball enough to win Games. They’ll need to Scoreplenty in this one if they want to cover, especially if their defense can’t stop Duke again.
Brad Kaaya is posting large numbers in his first season as Miami quarterback, but the wins aren’t there. While he has 10 TDs and has surpassed 340 yards in two straight Games, he also has seven interceptions through Four Games. Stephen Morris threw for 379 in the matchup last year, yet they still lost by 18. Kaaya will probably have another big day, but he’ll need to limit his turnovers. It also wouldn’t be surprising if they fed running back Duke Johnson a little more, in order to keep their defense off the field. Johnson can almost always find yardage, and could play a big role.
The Blue Devils are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 overall and 7-1 ATS in their last eight Conference Games. Those are good numbers. The Hurricanes are the opposite at 1-7 ATS in their last eight Conference Games and just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 Games overall. Are the Hurricanes getting overrated yet again?
With both teams looking to run the ball here, the value in this Game might be with going under the total. The total opened up at 55/5 and has been bet all the way up to 60.5 as of this writing on Thursday with bettors apparently looking for a repeat of last years Game. We don’t see it that way. Duke/Miami UNDER 60.5