East Carolina
vs.
South Carolina
College Football
Pick – Analysis
9/6/14
These teams don’t play each other much, but this will be their third meeting in the last Four years. South Carolina is coming off of probably the most surprising upset of the first week when they were thrashed by Texas A&M as a near double-digit favorite. They’ll get another tricky battle with East Carolina, as this isn’t a team to take lightly. The Gamecocks are sitting at -16.5 point favorites at 5 dimes sportsbook.
The Pirates joined a new Conference in the AAC this year and have high hopes with a senior-laden squad in tow led by quarterback Shane Carden. They destroyed NC Central in their opener 52-7, but it wasn’t that big of a surprise.
The last time these teams faced off in 2012, South Carolina handled things pretty easily. It happened to be one of the first Games for both QBs that are currently each team’s starter. Dylan Thompson threw for 330 yards and three touchdowns in a 48-10 win, while Shane Carden came in on relief effort and finished with 140 yards and a touchdown. The obvious difference between these teams is on the defensive end, where the Gamecocks are usually one of the nation’s best, and it’s usually an area ECU struggles.
South Carolina is hoping to bounce back after a rather embarrassing effort in the home opener against Texas A&M giving up 52 points to a first-time starting QB. Playing against the Pirates is by no means an easy task and this is not the same SC defense that they had a season ago. Carden and company could very well put some points on this group unlike a couple years ago.
Carden will look often to his favorite targets Isaiah Jones and Justin Hardy and try and mirror what Kenny Hill did to the Gamecocks. Getting some kind of ground Game going will be vital in helping Carden work though. They run an RB committee, and a couple of those guys will have to find some holes.
On the other end, South Carolina’s running Game should have a much better week. They’ll likely try and run from the start after garnering only 67 yards last week. Mike Davis and Brandon Wilds will be fed often against a smaller line that will produce more holes. Thompson should also be able to find his way, as this ECU defense tends to have problems against vs. bigger teams.
If the offense can get going a bit, there’s no reason East Carolina can’t stay in this Game against a possibly overrated defense. The problem is on the other end. And the fact that Steve Spurrier will want to get rid of last week’s bad taste from his mouth. The Gamecocks will be looking to dominate this Game.
The Pirates are 5-1 ATS in their last six non-Conference Games and also have that same record in their last six overall. The Gamecocks are 4-1 ATS in their last five non-Conference Games and have the same record in their last five following a double-digit home loss. Granted, that doesn’t happen all too often for them.
Spurrier teams at South Carolina have had a history of starting slow. Often times it’s not just the first Game but the first two or three Games that we see this. I could pretty much guarantee you that if they played Texas A&M again, say a month and a half down the road, or in a bowl Game, you’d see a very different result. The Gamecocks are much better than they looked last week. I’d look for a much improved effort this week. If this line was -14 or less we’d have to give some serious thought to using South Carolina as a Key Release. For now, the lines a tad too high to get involved. So just a lean. South Carolina -16.5