East Carolina
vs.
Virginia Tech
College Football
Pick – Analysis
9/13/14
Welcome to the AAC, East Carolina. But first, you have to play two top-25 teams on the road followed by North Carolina. That’s what the Pirates have to deal with this season in their first campaign playing in the American conference. Virginia Tech, following an upset of Ohio State last weekend, are -11 point favorites at 5 Dimes Sportsbook for this contest.
The Hokies had a true upset last Saturday against the Buckeyes as 10-point underdogs, but OSU was a bit overrated with J.T. Barrett at QB. In fact, the East Carolina offense is probably better than Ohio State’s at this point.
The Pirates are led by senior QB Shane Carden, while the Hokies brought in Texas Tech transfer Michael Brewer to take over for Logan Thomas. For ECU to have a chance, Carden will have to play well.
It looks like VT has a solid defense again, which isn’t much of a surprise. They forced Barrett into three interceptions last weekend and that was pretty much the Game. Their offense was okay, but not exactly a group that can win Games by themselves. Basically, the same Hokies team as in previous seasons.
There’s no doubt Brewer has gotten the job done so far for the Hokies as they are 2-0 and will likely be competing for the ACC Coastal title in a couple months. Brewer has done enough, throwing for 450 yards, 4 TDs and 3 INTs, but more importantly has completed close to 70 percent of his passes. That completion percentage is key for this offense to keep them on the field. Their running Game has been fine, but against ECU should find a few more holes. Marshawn Williams leads the team with 24 carries, but only averages 2.5 yards per carry.
The Hokies are definitely a question on offense, so part of Carden’s goal will have to be to limit turnovers. If he does, the Pirates could even have a shot at an upset. While VT is now ranked above South Carolina in the standings, it’s hard to say that the Hokies are the better team of the two.
Virginia Tech’s defense dominated this matchup last year as Carden threw three interceptions in a 15-10 win for the Hokies. While ECU’s running Game will struggle, it’s hard to imagine Carden getting held down to 10 points again. He’s already seen this defense and has another year under his belt with wide receivers Justin Hardy and Isaiah Jones in top form.
If this Game does end up being close in the Fourth quarter, it will come down to the quarterbacks. Carden can’t turn it over as Barrett did and we’ll get Our first taste of what Brewer can do under pressure.
The Pirates have covered in eight straight Games played on grass, but are only 3-13 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Hokies are only 10-21-1 in their last 32 grass Games, which isn’t good considering this is their home stadium. In the last five meetings between these schools, the home team has covered in Four of them, including last year when ECU was an 8-point home dog.
Be careful with this one. After such a huge win last week over Ohio State, Virginia Tech backers need to be aware of a possible let down. A hangover effect if you will. With that in mind, there may be some value in backing East Carolina in the first quarter and half this week. East Carolina + for the first quarter and first half