Florida State
vs.
Miami
College Football
Pick – Analysis
11/15/14
Well, this is it. Many are considering this Game Florida State’s final real test of the season, although they still (probably) have the ACC championship Game. Due to FSU’s struggles against the spread this year, the line isn’t as big as one would think. On the road at Miami (FL), the Seminoles are -1.5 point favorites at 5 Dimes, but a lot of early money is coming in on them (77%).
Despite being undefeated at 9-0, FSU has not been kind to bettors this season, going a poor 2-7 ATS. No matter what trouble they seem to get themselves in, Jameis Winston usually pulls them out on top, but not in covering efforts. The ‘Noles have already had problems on the road this year, mostly notably the Game at Louisville. Down 24-7 in the third quarter, FSU went on to record five touchdowns all of at least 35 yards. In the process, they also covered as a 3.5-point favorite.
Miami isn’t a powerhouse like old, but they have improved vastly since the beginning of the year when they lost to Louisville 31-13. The Hurricanes have now won three straight, including big at Virginia Tech 30-6. They have won all of their home Games by at least 12 points, which includes the 22-10 win over Duke.
Florida State has won the last Four meetings between these teams, most recently dominating 41-14 last season. Winston wasn’t even that great in the Game with one TD and two interceptions, but it was the FSU defense that controlled things, stopping the ‘Canes to just 275 total yards.
With a weaker defense this season, an improved Bray Kaaya along with the beast Duke Johnson, should be able to find the end zone more than once and make a Game of it for the Hurricanes.
As a freshman QB, there’s always growing pains, but Kaaya has been safer with the ball as of late after tossing seven interceptions in his first Four Games. The main reason for that is Miami figured out that Duke Johnson can run through most defenses. Johnson has reached 100-plus yards in five straight Games to go with six TDs, which includes a monstrous 249 yards against a usually stout Virginia Tech defense.
FSU can be beat on the ground, so there could be an advantage there, and once you combine that with the playmaking ability of WR Phillip Dorsett, it’s trouble.
However, Florida State hasn’t lost in forever for a reason, they’re good. The difference this year is not only a weaker defense, but a more lackadaisical Jameis Winston, who already has thrown 11 interceptions. Winston said it after the Virginia Game, that his interceptions are hurting the team. He has now thrown six picks in the last three Games. Then again, when needed, he usually comes through with big plays, like in wins against Notre Dame and Louisville. Rashad Greene is his favorite target in the receiving Game, and Karlos Wlliams has been a capable RB when healthy.
Under the lights at Sun Life Stadium, this is a big Game for Miami, and they’re in a great spot coming off a bye. But at this point, do you want to bet against this Florida State team and Winston when it’s such a short line?
The Seminoles don’t have any reliable positive trends and they are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Games overall. The Hurricanes have covered in Four straight home Games and are 6-1 ATS in their last seven Games following a bye week. The underdog is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings between these schools.
The oddsmakers may have this one correct. Things could change, but as of Monday, we don’t plan on playing this Game. We could make a case either way. For example, Our model, regardless of the parameters used, has Miami winning this straight up by anywhere from 2 to 5 points. Close, sure, but with Miami on top as a home underdog.
When we look at the yards per point numbers for these two, we see Miami with a good 13.2 on offense and a below average 14 on defense while the Seminoles numbers are a very good 11.8 and decent 16.6. When we use these numbers to make a line, factoring in Schedule strength and the home field, Florida State would be favored by around 2.5 to 3, which is where this one opened. again, pretty close to the number.
Lastly, when we look at the Miami dance card to date, it’s very unimpressive. They have faltered just about every time they stepped up in class, losing to Louisville, Nebraska and Georgia Tech while beating up on soft teams like Florida A&M and Arkansas State. Florida State may not be as dominant as last year, but since winning the title a year ago, while going undefeated, they keep finding ways to win.
No play for us here. Bottom line, a Miami win would not surprise us. The situation, with the Game being at home, at night, national TV audience, playing the champs, etc., sets up nicely for the Hurricanes. Emotion can elevate a team to the next level and these kids will be sky high. If forced to make a play here, it would be Miami +1.5 for that reason alone.