NC State
vs.
Florida State
College Football
Pick with Analysis
9/27/14
Jameis Winston or not, this Florida State team is not as good as last year’s group. Maybe they’ll reach those levels at some point, but made evident by their 0-3 record against the spread this season, the Seminoles don’t look as impenetrable as 2013. Still, they’ll travel to undefeated NC State as -21.5 point favorites at sportsbook.ag
Winston was suspended for last week’s Game vs. Clemson and FSU could have easily lost with Sean Maguire at QB. They were bailed out by a 74-yard TD pass in the Fourth quarter and eventually went on to win in overtime. Going off their first three Games compared to last year, FSU’s defense is not as good and the offense does not have as many playmakers. Losing guys like Kelvin Benjamin and Devonta Freeman is big.
Even with this huge line, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Wolfpack give the Seminoles some trouble. NC State looked shaky in their first two Games, barely beating Georgia Southern in the opener, but in their last two, things have been much better for the team as a whole. The 49-17 win at South Florida showed that.
The one thing in FSU’s favor will be the fact that they struggled against Clemson. With Winston back in as starter, they’ll look to pile up the points here and show the country they are the best team. Of course, that might not matter if they just really aren’t that good.
Florida State started quick in last year’s meeting, getting a 35-0 lead in the first quarter. Winston could basically do whatever he wanted at QB and the running Game was just as dominant with 224 yards. Take away that quick start and that final Scorecould’ve been a lot different. Possibly a big take away from that Game is that NC State actually rushed well with Shadrach Thornton gaining 173 yards on only 23 carries. If they can get the run Game going early in this one, things could get interesting.
Another difference maker is the new Wolfpack quarterback Jacoby Brissett, who comes over from Florida. He’s had a solid start to the year with 1,005 yards, 10 TDs and only one INT. Combine that with the talented RB corps of Thornton (283 yards, 5 TDs), Matt Dayes (267 yards, 3 TDs) and Tony Creecy and they could give some trouble to the Seminoles.
On the other end, FSU shouldn’t have much trouble scoring, but this offense hasn’t really taken off this year, having not surpassed 37 points in a Game yet. Winston’s numbers are not great with 4 total TDs and 2 INTs. Rashad Greene (24 receptions, 418 yards) is getting the majority of looks in the passing Game. Running back Karlos Williams (177 yards, 4.2 YPC) is not doing a whole lot for the offense after averaging 8.0 yards per carry last season.
The Seminoles are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record, but only 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road Games. The Wolfpack are a solid 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 home Games vs. a team with a winning road record, although are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven home Games. The Wolfpack are 13-3-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings between these schools and they’ve been the underdog in all of them.
NC State was 3-9 a year ago. Based on their performance last year coupled with the shaky competition they have faced so far this year, backing them becomes a difficult proposition. However, we’d like to remind everyone that it was as recently as the 2012 season that the Wolfpack was able to compete with the Noles. In that year, they beat Florida State 17-16. In fact, they have beaten Florida State the last two times they played in Raleigh.
With that in mind, and considering FSU lines are going to be iNFLated for the foreseeable future, we’ll take a stab at the Wolfpack here. NC State +21.5