Florida State
vs.
Syracuse
College Football
Pick with Analysis
10/11/14
With the SEC and Pac-12 beating up on each other, Florida State has an open road to remain the No. 1 team for the rest of the season. Their Schedule is nothing to worry about, outside of one Game which follows this one. Will the Seminoles be looking ahead to Notre Dame? Some think so. The line is varied throughout the books, but 5 Dimes has the Seminoles as a -23.5 point favorite at the time of this writing.
Florida State didn’t Scorein the first quarter against Wake Forest, yet still found a way to win 43-3. They struggled against Oklahoma State in the opener, needed overtime without Jameis Winston against Clemson and pulled away from NC State after an early scare. Will they be worried about Syracuse? Unlikely. And with Notre Dame being FSU’s biggest threat to an undefeated season, that Game will loom large on many of the players’ minds.
However, this kind of thing did not affect the team last year. They beat Maryland 63-0 the week before they travelled to No. 3 Clemson and won 51-14. Then FSU beat NC State 49-17 the week before beating No. 7 Miami (FL) 41-14. Maybe this isn’t the same team, but it’s hard to bet against the Seminoles because they’re looking ahead. Especially since this matchup ended 59-3 last season.
Syracuse had little offense in that Game and allowed Jameis Winston to complete 19-of-21 passes as FSU also ran for 11.8 yards per carry as a team. Are the Orange better this season? It doesn’t look like it.
They beat Villanova in two overtimes and took down a bad Central Michigan team. While fighting with Notre Dame and Maryland, they could not move the ball against Louisville.
Syracuse starting QB Terrel Hunt is also out with a fractured fibula, which makes this line even more interesting. Inexperienced backup QB Austin Wilson is next in line, but it’s possible they use a two-QB system. In addition to that, the Orange will have a new offensive coordinator. To say the least, it’s unknown what to expect from Syracuse offensively in this one, and that isn’t exactly a good thing for FSU. Cuse will still have Prince Tyson-Gulley and Adonis Ameen-Moore out of the backfield, but who else will get the ball?
On the other end, even though Florida State’s offense doesn’t look like last season’s edition, they still should be fine against the Orange defense. Winston has a mediocre 8 TDs and 5 INTs on the season, but it’s possible that he can bust out at any time and Rashad Greene (576 yards, 3 TDs) is one of the best receivers in the Game. Running back Karlos Williams (353 yards, 5 TDs) will also be a handful.
The Seminoles are just 1-5 ATS in their last six Game overall (last week was first cover of season), but are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. The Orange are 1-4 ATS in their last five, with that cover coming against CMU. Syracuse has not covered in Four straight home Games.
Our Score Prediction model has this Game much closer than the current line. Syracuse has a yards per point number of 19 offensively which places them 120th out of 128 teams. That’s obviously poor and suggests difficulty moving the ball however we also have to consider that they faced Notre Dame and Louisville, two very good defenses. Add in a new QB and we are forced to pass this Game.
As a lean only, we’ll take Syracuse. When you consider NC State hung 41 on the Seminoles before getting shut out the following week by Clemson, it kind of hammers home the point that this Florida State defense is no where near what it was a year ago. The Florida State lines are going to continue to be iNFLated until someone (Notre Dame?) knocks them off. Syracuse +23.5