Fresno State
vs.
Boise State
MWC Football
Championship Pick
12/6/14
These teams already met earlier this year and it was on the Boise blue turf with the Broncos coming away in a 37-27 win. Both of these teams have improved since then, but it’s Boise State that has taken the bigger jump. The Broncos are heavy -21 point favorites as seen at Sportsbook.ag
Boise State is getting a home Game for the MWC Championship and they have to feel good about that as most other Conference championships are played at a neutral site. since the first meeting between these teams, Boise State looks even better. While their offense is still scoring loads of points, their defense has picked it up as well, allowing only 33 points in their last two Games. The Broncos also increased scoring with at least 50 points in Four of their final five Games. Two of those came against BYU and Utah State, two solid teams.
As for Fresno State, their improvement hasn’t been as noticeable as the Bulldogs lost at home to Wyoming by 28 points the Game after they played BSU. Instead of falling apart, though, FSU stayed strong and won their final three Games, with the most impressive being the on the road at Nevada. This isn’t the same FSU team from a year ago that won the MWC title, so temper expectations.
OUtside of BSU’s random road loss to Air Force back in September, this team has been dominant. Their offense is clicking in every aspect led by an unstoppable running back. The defense has been the weak point, but as said before, the unit has picked it up in recent Games.
Running back Jay Ajayi has 1,619 yards and 24 TDs on the year and has at least 110 yards and two TDs in seven straight Games. Yeah, he’s good. He’s a junior and was listed on USA Today’s Heisman contender list, although was snubbed for the Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year award. To make matters worse for Fresno State’s defense, Ajayi tweeted out Tuesday, “Just Fuel To The Fire.”
That doesn’t bode well for Fresno as Ajayi went for 195 total yards and two TDs in the first matchup between these teams. Not to be forgotten, BSU quarterback Grant Hedrick has improved mightily since early-season struggles. He’s completing 71.5% of his passes on the year for 28 total TDs (22 passing).
While Boise State’s defense has been inconsistent this year, Fresno State’s has been on par with that allowing 33 points per Game. A lot of that has to do with their first three Games of the year (USC, Utah, Nebraska), but this group still allowed 45 points to Wyoming.
On the offensive end, Fresno State will need to find a way to keep it close. Last Game, the Bulldogs did find some running room, which will be key again. Marteze Waller (1,269 yards, 11 TDs) is having a solid season himself at tailback. The difference with these teams is probably in quarterback play. While both teams’ QBs have attempted roughly the same amount of passes, FSU’s Brian Burrell has about 1,000 less yards and is completing less the 58% of his passes.
The line seems a bit large considering the last Game was decided by 10 points, but with how Boise State has looked in its last couple Games, they seem to have taken a jump on the defensive side as well.
The Bulldogs are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 road Games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Broncos are only 1-4 ATS in their last five Games in December and just 1-5 ATS in their last six Games after scoring more than 40 points in the previous Game. The favorite is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings between these schools, which makes Boise State 12-2 ATS in the last 14 matchups.
We were set to make a case for Fresno here. Why? Well, the Boise defense shut down Wyoming and Utah State their last two times out, but prior to those Games, gave up bundles of points on a weekly basis. That’s always a dangerous spot when laying 21 points. But the Boise offense is on an incredible roll, so we’ll back off the side. Instead, we’ll recommend the OVER in this one as there figures to be plenty of fireworks both ways. Fresno/Boise OVER 68.5