Florida State
vs.
Louisville
College Football
Pick – Analysis
10/30/14
Florida State continues its quest to finish the season undefeated. Next up is a road Game at ACC newcomers Louisville. These teams haven’t played since 2002 so they won’t be too familiar with each other. The Seminoles opened as high as -8.5 point favorites on the road at betonline, the first to post lines each week. That number has since moved down to -3.5 across the board, including 5 dimes. That move comes despite 71% of the action coming in on FSU, usually a sign that the sharper money is on the other side.
While the Seminoles are undefeated at 7-0 this year, they have killed bettors at just 1-6 against the spread. Their only cover was in a 43-3 win over Wake Forest. Coming off a big win over Notre Dame, they still deserve the respect as one of the best in the nation even though they aren’t blowing everyone out of the water. When it comes to it, FSU continues to win Games.
Things haven’t been as easy for Louisville in its first season in the ACC. The Cardinals already have two Conference losses and still have road Games at Boston College and Notre Dame to deal with. On the positive end, both of those losses were on the road and in close Games. Even without Teddy Bridgewater, this is still a solid team that is 5-3 ATS on the year.
With the way FSU has played this year, there’s no reason Louisville won’t be able to keep this somewhat close and stay in striking range. since this is a Thursday Game, both teams got this past weekend off.
Much has been made known of Jameis Winston’s numbers this year compared to what he put up as a freshman. While he’s completing passes at a 70.6% rate, the 13 TDs pales in comparison to what he did last year, finishing with 40 touchdowns. Still, it’s hard to deny that he’s one of the best in the Game, and his accuracy shows that. Even without the firepower from last year, the Seminoles are still a great offense. Their running Game is a work in progress with Karlos Williams, but Rashad Greene leads a solid receiving core.
Louisville hasn’t really faced a great offense yet, which is one of the benefits of playing in the ACC. But their defense has yet to allow more than 23 points, which would be huge if they could do that here. Considering FSU has scored at least 31 points in each Game with Winston at the helm, it would be surprising if the Cardinals could keep them in check.
However, on the other end, even though the Seminoles don’t have as good of defense as last year, Louisville doesn’t have the greatest offense.
Will Gardner leads the way at quarterback with 11 TDs and two INTs, but this team wants to run the ball, especially with Gardner only completing 57.3% of his passes. The Cardinals were led by Michael Dyer (173 yards, one TD) in the backfield last week and he’ll probably get the first call again for the Cardinals. No matter who is getting touches, they’ll need to move the chains to keep Winston off the field.
Florida State may not be as dominant, but they know how to win.
The Seminoles are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight Games overall and have not covered in Four straight road Games. The Cardinals are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, but 1-4 ATS in their last five home Games vs. a team with a winning road record.
One easy way to tell the sharp side of a Game is to look at the betting percentages and the line move. When you see a spot where the majority of action is on one side, yet the line moves the other way, you can be pretty sure that the sharp side is the side of the line move.
In this spot, that’s Louisville and we agree with the big move. Our model has Louisville winning the Game straight up and historically, Our model has been at it’ best in that scenario.
Had the opener held at +7 this would have been a Key Release. We would still consider a play on this Game at +6. However, moving all the way down to +3.5 has really sucked all the value out of this one. There are some 4’s on the board so we’ll put this one out as a strong opinion at +4 that would get dtronger at +6. Louisville +4