Houston
vs.
BYU
College Football
Pick with Analysis
9/11/14
BYU hosts Houston Thursday Night in a Game that can be seen on ESPN at 9pm est. Betonline opened this Game BYU -14 while other books opened -16.5. 5 dimes sportsbook opened the Game BYU -17. Regardless of which book opened where, the early money came in on BYU, pushing this number to BYU -18.5 as of this writng on Monday.
This is rematch of a Game played last year which was a shootout won by BYU 47-46. It was a back and forth Game with both teams holding leads. Houston was in front in the 4th quarter 46-41 until the 5:20 mark of that quarter when BYU scored the winning TD. Despite how even the Game played out on the scoreboard, BYU held a huge first down edge, 41-23 and a rushing edge, 264-48. Each had 400+ passing yards.
BYU is 2-0, knocking off UCONN in week 1 and destroying Texas 41-7 last week. Houston lost in week 1 to UTSA 27-7 and beat Grambling last week 47-0. I think what you’re seeing with this high number and the early money on BYU is a combination of things. One, it’s a reaction to BYU’s hammering of Texas and two, a reaction to Houston’s high powered offense scoring just 7 on UTSA in week 1, a team they hung 59 on a year ago. Grambling, well, most programs would hang 47 on Grambling. It’s simply not a big time program.
BYU is the better football team here. No question. But I think you’re seeing a bit of an overreaction to the BYU win over Texas. I for one, was dead wrong about that Game. I felt Texas would redeem themselves from the previous years loss. I thought they had some talent. I was wrong. But I’m not ready to admit I was wrong about BYU. Unfortunately, BYU has an incredibly easy Schedule the rest of the way and we could very well be looking at an undefeated team come the end of November. (UCF and Boise will be their biggest tests)
But despite the yardage and first down edges for BYU a year ago, this was a Game Houston could have won. Furthermore, Houston wasn’t a one hit wonder last year. They were 8-5 and went on the road to face #19 UCF as 12 point dogs and lost by just 5 and followed that up by going on the road to face another #19, Louisville, as 17 point dogs, this time losing by 7. They hammered Rutgers 49-14 as well, who went on to give Notre Dame all they could handle in a Bowl Game.
Point being, Houston was a legitimate football team a year ago. They should be confident coming in based on last years result. They return 8 to their offense and 9 to their defense this year, along with 45 returning letterman. Pretty much the exact same number of returnees as BYU.
With an offense like Houston’s, that back door is ALWAYS open. We’re going to grab the points here with what we feel is an iNFLated number. Houston +18.5