Indiana
vs.
Missouri
College Football
Pick – Analysis
9/20/14
Missouri will host Indiana on Saturday in a rematch of their Game from a year ago which was won by Missouri 45-25 and was never in doubt from start to finish. The Tigers were sitting as -17 point favorites Monday morning until a strong move pushed this number down to -14.5 at 5 dimes sportsbook. Even as far as -14 at one other offshore.
Indiana comes into this contest at 1-1 with a one sided 28-10 win over Indiana State to open the year and a loss to Bowling Green last week. Meanwhile, #18 Missouri is rolling along at 3-0 with wins over South Dakota State, Toledo and Central Florida.
Games like this one are difficult to get involved with. This Indiana team is largely intact from a year ago while Missouri has lost some key personnel. However despite the losses, Mizu is likely still the better team. They simply have the better talent and the early results from these two prove that point.
The Missouri defense should be tested in this Game though as Indiana can move the football. Sure, the Hoosier defense isn’t exactly stellar and Missouri will get their points but this Game has the makings of a high scoring affair and any time that’s the case, we steer clear of the favorite because that old backdoor cover always looms large.
That being said, after a move from -17 down to -14, the only way to look is with the favorite. That’s where the value lies. We repeat this often, hoping it will sink in with at least a few readers. You can’t expect to win over the course of the long run, when betting bad numbers, also known as getting the worst of it. A typical “square” move by a bettor would be to watch a line like this get hammered, say down to -13. Wanting to join in on the fun, that bettor will take the +13 and the Game ends up landing on 14. The sharps who took +17 and even those who came in right after, all win while Our hero who took +13 loses! (oh, and the sharps who layed -13 also won)
Remember. The 3 most important traits of a winning bettor are 1) always getting the best number. 2) Astute money management and 3) Good handicapping. Note that #’s 1 and 2 are EVEN MORE IMPORTANT than #3.
At any rate, just as an opinion only, we’ll side with the value here and take the better football team in Missouri -14 or better.