Iowa Pitt College Football Pick

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Iowa

vs.

Pitt

College Football

Pointspread Pick

9/20/14

The Pitt Panthers will welcome the Iowa Hawkeyes on Saturday at 12 noon est. in a Game that can be seen on ESPN2. 5 dimes sportsbook opened this Game Pitt-4 and the early action has favored the Panthers moving this line to -6 as of Monday morning.

It can be very important when handicapping early season college football to not get caught up in the most recent results. Instead, it’s always a good idea to take a step back and take a look at each teams previous season. Then, it’s also a good idea, to take an even larger step back and look at each teams past few seasons. Finally, it’s always a good idea to step back as far as you can and look at the history of each program.

This is important because talent levels don’t generally change all that much. There’s a pecking order when it comes to recruiting. That’s why college footballs elite rarely changes. The good teams are good year after year. The bad teams generally stay bad. The mediocre teams generally stay mediocre. Sure, there are exceptions and there are mediocre teams that play well above their talent level from time to time. But by and large, you can take that pecking order to the bank.

So, in a matchup like this, you have two very similar teams that have held their current spots on the totem pole for quite some time. Pitt would be mediocre, possibly a tad over mediocre. Iowa would be decent. Maybe good. Certainly not great and certainly not elite. Iowa, being in the Big 10, and being better than mediocre, even good, is generally going to be able to recruit talent that is a tad better than Pitt. When you look at it that way, you can almost handicap a Game like this without even knowing anything about this particular season and you could probably do fairly well in the long run.

again, two very similar teams here. Iowa was 8-5 a year ago and Pitt was 7-6. Both of these teams lost almost identical numbers of starters and seniors from a year ago. If anything, Iowa is in better shape there as they return their starting QB. Iowa was the better team a year ago by virtue of either beating or competing with better teams, capped off with giving LSU all they could handle in the OUtback Bowl while Pitt barely got by Bowling Green in a minor Bowl Game. Had this Game been played last year, Iowa would likely have been favored on the road.

Betting lines are iNFLuenced by the most recent events and value can often be created as a result. Case in point – Pitt beat Boston College AT Boston College. Boston College upset USC at home last week. Last week, Iowa lost at home, to Iowa State. That chain of events is responsible for early money showing on Pitt here and pushing this line to Pitt -6. 73% of the early wagers for this Game have come in on Pitt.

But taking a step back and taking a closer look at the two teams, we can conclude that Iowa is every bit as good as Pitt and likely has the better talent. What happened last week against Iowa State? Who knows. Bad prep? Maybe they took the Cyclones lightly? Either way, this is a spot where Iowa can bounce back and certainly a Game they can win outright. Anytime you have a dog of +3 or more that has a decent shot at a straight up win, you have a wager with the potential at being profitable over the long haul which is what we are after. Iowa +7

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