Iowa State Iowa Football Pick

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Iowa State

vs.

Iowa

College Football

Pick with Analysis

9/13/14

Iowa will host Iowa State Saturday in the annual matchup between in state rivals. Iowa opened as a -15.5 point favorite at betonline and Iowa State money quickly came in, likely in response to the Cyclones tough play against Kansas State last week along with Iowa barely getting by Ball State and Northern Iowa the previous two weeks. A little later, 5 Dimes opened Iowa at -13.5 and the Iowa State money still wasn’t finished coming in as the number currently sits at Iowa -11.5 across the board as of Monday.

The most recent results of the series probably are most indicative of how things might go this time around. Heading into last years Game, Iowa State had won the two previous meetings. Last year, Iowa was on top but it was close, 27-21. Iowa went on to win 8 Games and give LSU all they could handle in the OUtback Bowl while Iowa State won just 3 Games and was home for the holidays. Safe to say Iowa State benefits from this Game always coming at the beginning of the season.

While it may have appeared that Iowa had trouble their first two Games with opponents they should beat, it’s important to point out that while the scores were close, the box Scorewasn’t. They won the first down battle 27-13 against Ball State and 26-13 against Northern Iowa. against Northern Iowa, they rushed for 150 yards while holding Northern Iowa to 25. In the Ball State Game, they got it done through the air throwing for 342 yards while holding Ball State to 129.

Ultimately, that’s the problem with backing Iowa laying double digits. Their style of play doesn’t lend itself to being able to bet the Hawkeyes to cover big numbers with confidence. Throw in a team like Iowa State that seems to always show up for this rivalry Game and that initial line move on this Game makes plenty of sense.

Our early week opinion on this one as we write this on Monday afternoon would be to side with Iowa State here even after the initial line move. Iowa State and Paul Rhoads desperately need to improve on that 3 win total of a year ago and proved last week they are plenty capable of hanging around. We would caution you though however, playing Games AFTER such significant line moves can only lead to trouble over the long haul.

Early week opinion – Iowa State +11.5

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