Kansas State
vs.
Iowa State
College Football
Pick with Analysis
9/6/14
It may be a little early in the season for the annual Farmageddon matchup between Kansas State and Iowa State, but that shouldn’t take away from the rivalry. Although last week’s embarrassing loss at home to an FCS school has Cyclone fans not really looking forward to the season. As expected, the Wildcats are sizable -12.5 point favorites even on the road at 5dimes.com
ISU opened the season as -6 point favorites against North Dakota State — who has won three straight FCS titles — but ended up losing 34-14, after scoring the Game’s first 14 points. The offense stuttered after the two early touchdowns and the defense didn’t do much, giving up 66- and 80-yard rushing touchdowns in the process.
As for KSU, things went as expected for Bill Snyder’s crew, covering in a 55-16 win against Stephen F. Austin. Jake Waters was solid in his first start as the full-time starting QB with running QB Daniel Sams gone.
Kansas State dominated last year’s matchup easily covering 17 points with a 41-7 win at home. The defense dominated throughout with three interceptions, and the offense couldn’t be stopped on the ground en route to 226 yards and Four TDs.
After seeing the Cyclones offense last week, there’s no reason the same can’t happen again. In addition to last weekend’s loss, top receiver Quenton Bundrage tore his MCL and will miss the rest of the season. Sam B. Richardson is the starting quarterback, but he’s on a short leash if his struggles continue. Iowa State has had trouble finding a consistent QB for a while now. The running Game could also be a problem against the Wildcats. Something will have to change drastically for this team to get on the scoreboard multiple times.
On the other end, KSU lost running back John Hubert, but still pose a threat with a young, but solid RB committee. Waters’ dual-threat ability is also similar to that of Collin Klein which will be a problem for ISU to stop. The Wildcats can control both lines in this Game and that’s about all they’ll need to do.
The Wildcats are an incredible 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 road Games so we know being on the road won’t be a problem for Snyder and his crew. Meanwhile, the Cyclones are just 1-7-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The under has hit in eight of KSU’s last 11 road Games and 12 of ISU’s last 17 home Games. In this meeting, the under is 4-1 in the last five.
Looking at betting trends for this Game we see that 80% of the wagers coming in are on Kansas State. No surprise. It should also come as no surprise that most bettors lose over the long run. One of the reasons bettors lose over the long run is Games like this. They see last years results. Then they see last weeks results for both teams and figure they have a “lock”. Lot’s of TV’s across the nation get smashed each year because of Games like this.
We’re not saying Iowa State is the right side. In fact, we really have no opinion on this Game. But be careful.
Iowa State last beat Kansas State in 2007. They have lost 6 in a row. We have last years 41-7 debacle, but the previous 5 losses were by 6, 7, 7, 1 and 8 points. That shows that the Iowa State program is capable of fielding teams that can compete with the Kansas State program. Also consider that Iowa State lost by 6 to Iowa last year, 1 to Texas, 7 to Texas Tech and 4 to TCU. This isn’t a Pop Warner team and they do return 10 starters to the offense.
again, we have no opinion here. Just be careful. If this line were to pass +14, and it very well might, there could be a little value with the Iowa State side.