Kansas State
vs.
TCU
Big 12
College Football
Pick – Analysis
11/8/14
There seems to be one huge Big 12 Game every week. This week has two of them. This one features two AP Top 10 teams and is the last big test for TCU this season. The Horned Frogs are -5.5 point favorites at home against the Wildcats at 5 dimes and betonline.
Kansas State has silently made their way to the top of the Big 12 standings with an undefeated Conference record. Their only loss is a 20-14 home Game to Auburn, in which their kicker missed three field goals (he has since been replaced). On the downside, KSU still has to travel to West Virginia and Baylor after this Game. While they already beat Oklahoma on the road, this upcoming stretch almost looks impossible for them to come away unscathed.
TCU’s situation is almost opposite of that having already faced the top Big 12 teams. The 61-58 loss at Baylor is looming large at this point. The Frogs have Kansas, Texas and Iowa State remaining on their Schedule after Saturday. If they can beat KSU, at least a split of the Conference title will be there for them if not something more, like a spot in the College Football Playoff.
Nevertheless, a win here would be nice for both teams. KSU won at home in this matchup last year, but only 33-31 as an 11.5-point favorite. Both teams have improved since, but another close Game should be expected.
The difference for Kansas State is that Jake Waters is a different quarterback this year. He has fit right into his role in this offense. Waters has now gone five straight Games without a turnover, which is exceptional for how much he carries the ball. On the year, Waters has 11 passing TDs and three INTs, but also 404 rushing yards and seven rushing TDs. WR Tyler Lockett (682 yards, 5 TDs) is a great receiver, and Curry Sexton (609 yards) has also come up huge for this offense on multiple occasions. In addition, running back Charles Jones has 11 TDs. So far, no one has been able to stop this group in Conference play.
It’ll be interesting to see what Bill Snyder’s defense will do in this one against a TCU team averaging 48 points per Game. They have kept most offenses in check so far, but have given up 58 points in their two Conference road Games this year, and one of them was at Iowa State.
The Horned Frogs probably won’t be reaching 50 here, and the Scorecould fall more in line to last week’s comeback over West Virginia (31-30). This Game will depend on how Trevone Boykin comes back from his worst performance of the season. He was in Heisman talks before last week and then he only managed 12-of-30 passing with one TD and one INT vs. WVU. If Boykin struggles again, Kansas State is a more experienced squad that could pounce on those miscues. And the Wildcats usually aren’t a team to give Games away.
The matchup of Boykin vs. KSU will be interesting, but also Waters vs. TCU, as the Frogs defense still hasn’t really lived up to their name.
The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five road Games and 20-5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Horned Frogs have covered in six straight home Games and are now 9-1 ATS in their last 10 overall. However, that ATS loss was last week at the Mountaineers.
This isn’t a Game you’re going to handicap and find a decisive edge other than the obvious home field advantage for TCU. It’s hard to imagine this Game NOT being decided late in the 4th quarter and in that type of Game you want to be taking points. As of Tuesday morning there are some +6’s available on the board so we’ll recommend Kansas State +6 or better.