Kansas State
vs.
West Virginia
Big 12
College Football
Pick – Analysis
11/20/14
Things were looking great for both of these teams only a couple weeks ago, but then they kept playing and losing. Kansas State still has a slim shot at the Big 12 title, while West Virginia has lost two straight Games and sit with three Conference losses. This Game opened pk at both 5 dimes and betonline and has since moved to WVA -2.5 as of this writing on Monday morning.
A lot of people were thinking the Wildcats could be playing in the playoff by season’s end before last week. They looked like a great team with their only loss being to Auburn. And then they were beaten easily at TCU 41-20, while Auburn keeps losing. KSU’s Schedule doesn’t get any easier with this one and a road Game at Baylor to close out the season. This could be a Four-loss team before we know it.
The Mountaineers already have a big win (Baylor), but that’s about all they have. While this team is improved from last year’s group, their flaws have shown in recent weeks, losing (maybe unluckily to TCU) and then thoroughly beaten at Texas last Game.
Morgantown is a tough place to play, and the fact that this is a Thursday Game under the lights makes it a bit harder for Kansas State to come away with a win.
The Wildcats have one of the best defenses in the conference, and they just gave up 334 rushing yards to TCU. It’s hard to think Bill Snyder’s group will be gashed in back-to-back Games and out of a bye, but it’s not out of the question.
K-State also couldn’t run the ball in that Game (19 carries, 34 yards) and that’s kind of what this offense needs. Jake Waters has been great this season at quarterback, but hasn’t been able to run the ball as well since hurting his shoulder back in October. It wouldn’t be surprising if they incorporate backup sophomore QB Joe Hubener a little more in these last few Games. Still, Waters is a threat in the passing Game with Tyler Lockett and Curry Sexton catching balls.
West Virginia plays great at home, but they already lost to Oklahoma and TCU in Morgantown. In a weekday night Game, however, things might be different.
To win this Game, the Mountaineers will need a better effort from QB Clint Trickett. He’s been great this season, but has tossed three picks in the last two Games to go with only one touchdown. That’s not going to cut it against good teams. WVU has a balanced offense with Wendell Smallwood and Rushel Shell proving capable out of the backfield and that will give KSU problems. And then there’s wide receiver Kevin White (1,207 yards, 8 TDs), who is almost impossible to stop.
This Game is setting up to be a back-and-forth battle without either team really having an edge anywhere on the field. Kansas State has shown they can win these Games, but West Virginia will want to win their home finale.
The Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in their last seven overall and have covered six straight following a bye week. They are also 15-3 ATS in their last 18 Games following a straight-up loss. The Mountaineers are just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 Conference Games, but are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Kansas State has won and covered in the last two meetings between these schools.
Hopefully, the line keeps moving in West Virginia’s favor. At +3 or better we could become very interested in Kansas State. The feeling here is that Kansas State is the better team. Both teams playing for a better Bowl Game but Kansas State playing for a little more than that, with an outside shot at the Big 12 title. Points worth taking here. Kansas State +2.5