LA Tech
vs.
North Texas
Thursday Night
College Football
Pick – Analysis
9/11/14
These two met last year in a Game that was statistically pretty close. LA Tech jumped out to a 10-0 lead but North Texas came back and eventually went on to win on the road, 28-13 as -3.5 point favs. This time around, LA Tech is at home and favored by -6.5 at GTBets.
It’s always interesting to look at the early line moves. Betonline is the very first book to post their lines each week and they opened LA Tech -4. Now, those early moves could be meaningful, or not, depending on how they move. If they post a -4 and it doesn’t move until 3 hOurs later, chances are, they are only moving in reaction to where the other books open the Game. However, if it moves relatively quickly after being posted, you can be fairly sure a sharp player is responsible for the move. The general public isn’t sitting there firing away at openers. (this Game moved 3 hrs after being posted)
In this Game, despite last years close Game statistically, it was very clear when looking at the big picture that North Texas was the MUCH better team. A look at the common opponents confirms that along with the final records. North Texas was 9-4 and won a Bowl Game while LA Tech finished 4-8.
This year, LA Tech is in better shape by just a tad in terms of returning personnel. North Texas has to replace a pretty good QB and their defensive front 7 has been overhauled. Both teams opened against Big 12 opponents and were hammered and both bounced back in a big way last week against lesser foes.
You could make a very good case for LA Tech based on the fact that they played this team evenly in the stat column a year ago. Common sense really. A year ago the LA Tech offense was horrendous. They averaged 19 points per Game, down from 51 the year before. That’s huge. But this last week they hung 48 on UL LAf which is more points than they scored in any one Game a year ago. Another reason to think LA Tech can get it done here.
Nothing strong here. North Texas was 5-1 at home last year and overall, the much better team. But LA Tech proved they can hang with them and looks to be a little more potent offensively this year. We’ll go ahead and take the points here. LA Tech +6.5