LSU
vs.
Auburn
SEC
College Football
Pick – Analysis
10/4/14
Auburn has not forgotten about last year’s Game against LSU. It was their only loss of the regular season and it was never close in a 35-21 Game. The tides have turned this year, with Auburn coming in as -7.5 home favorites at sportsbook.ag with a total of 56.
The Auburn Tigers have picked up where they left the 2013 season (outside of the loss to Florida State) with a 4-0 record. They have faced a variety of teams with the toughest being a Thursday night Game at Kansas State.
The LSU Tigers are in a bit of a different spot as they’ve had to deal with a few new offensive players. They’ve beaten up on weaker teams, but also got a big comeback win in the opener against Wisconsin. They are 0-1 in SEC play though after losing at home to Mississippi State a couple weeks ago after getting gashed for 302 yards on the ground.
This will be LSU’s first true road Game of the year, which doesn’t make things easy for a freshman quarterback. After Anthony Jennings won the QB job before the season, Brandon Harris has taken it and will get the start for this Game.
Harris looks like the overall better talent and his athleticism could be key for this offense, so while it is his first ever start, it’s not a downgrade from Jennings. In fact, it could easily be an upgrade. Travin Dural (21 receptions, 534 yards, five TDs) will be looked at often in the passing Game. However, it will be the LSU run Game that is most important behind Leonard Fournette and Kenny Hilliard, who have a combined 620 yards.
Auburn’s defense has looked solid this year, though, and maybe even more so than last season. They controlled Kansas State for most of that Game, holding the Wildcats to just 40 yards rushing. KSU also has a mobile quarterback, so that experience should help against a guy like Harris.
Considering LSU has already gotten thrashed on the ground this season more than once, it should be expected for Auburn to have a rather successful Game in their rushing attack. The loss of Tre Mason is noticeable so far, but Cameron Artis-Payne (468 yards, 5 TDs) has been solid with Corey Grant (216 yards) backing him up. At QB Nick Marshall is still the same quarterback. He isn’t asked to pass it much for a reason, but he did have two passing TDs against Kansas State.
We’re at a point in this college football season where we can start to pay attention to stats such as yards per point numbers. When we look at this matchup we see two teams that are near the top of the charts on both sides of the ball for this all important stat. LSU’s 11.1 on offense is good enough for 12th in the nation While Auburns 11.3 places them 15th. Defensively, LSU’s 22.4 places them 11th while Auburns 19.2 has them ranking 23rd overall.
When we add it all up, LSU’s numbers are about a field goal better than Auburns however Auburn has played a Schedule that ranks stronger by, well, you guessed it, a field goal. That means that using these numbers to make a line, on a neutral field, this Game would be a toss up. So, how much is Auburns home field worth? If it’s worth a TD, you can’t bet this Game. However, if it’s worth 3 or 4 points, you have to take a close look at the dog.
Now, that’s just one method of getting a number on a Game. There are many others. For the sake of this article I can tell you that in this Game, we would only look one way and that would be with LSU. In a spot like this, over the long run, laying over a TD would prove hazardous to your bankroll. We’re still working on this Game but will leave you with the opinion of LSU +7.5 or pass.