Maryland
vs.
South Florida
College Football
Pointspread Pick
9/6/14
South Florida hosts Maryland Saturday in what will be the 2nd Game for both teams. Maryland trounced James Madison while South Florida had to come from behind and then hold on to edge out Western Carolina 36-31. Maryland opened -10 at 5dimes.com and the line has since moved to -12.5.
Maryland is an overwhelming public favorite in this Game. Meaning, if you look at the betting percentages offered by various online sportsbooks, which show how many bets have been taken on each side of a Game, in this one, you’ll find that anywhere from 80-85% of the wagers taken have come in on Maryland. That’s frightening. Doesn’t mean Maryland won’t win and cover, but it does make us take a step back and take a closer look at this one. Nothing is that easy.
It’s not hard to figure out why the public is all over Maryland here. South Florida was 2-10 a year ago. Last week they had to come from behind against Western Carolina all while giving up 454 total yards and losing the first down battle 27-13. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to determine that’s not good!
The public also sees the blowout score of 52-7 of Maryland over James Madison, not weighting it properly and taking the opponent into consideration. A common scenario for the coming week would be for South Florida to upset Maryland leaving all those bettors scratching their heads saying, “what happened?”.
But there IS plenty to like about Maryland. We talk up Randy Edsall every year because we watched the magnificent job he did with the UConn program. In Maryland, thus far, his teams have been plagued by injuries yet he has still gone from 2 to 4 and then 7 wins last year. This is his deepest team yet and if they stay healthy, they should be very competitive in the Big 10. That being said, if they are going to go bowling this year, this weeks Game is a must win.
Maryland should win this Game. They have the better team. One that is much further along in the rebuilding process. South Florida, with 2nd year coach Willie Taggart, are still experiencing the growing pains that go along with rebuilding a program. A sure sign that things will get going in the right direction is their 23-20 loss to UCF at the end of last season. That win alone points towards South Florida being a risky proposition as a go against.
We wouldn’t play this Game for real. But as an opinion only, put us down with the 85% of the betting public on this one, as much as we hate to join the masses. We’d expect a MUCH better effort from South Florida this week but at the end of the day, Maryland is the significantly better team here. Maryland -12.5