Memphis
vs.
Cincinnati
College Football
Pick – Analysis
10/4/14
Cincinnati will host Memphis on Saturday in what will be the first American Athletic Conference Game of the season for both squads. The Bearcats come in at 2-1 with wins over Toledo and Miami Ohio before getting blown off the field by Ohio State last week. Memphis has wins over Austin Peay and Middle Tennessee along with a close loss to UCLA before falling to Ole Miss last week, 24-3 in a Game that was close heading into the 4th quarter. Cinci opened as a -6.5 point favorite at 5 dimes and has been bet down to -4. The total is 64, up from 61.5.
Memphis is the type of team that may be worth latching onto as a bettor. They have shown signs of life going back to last season and may very well be a team on the rise as they look for their first winning season since 2007. A look back at last years Schedule shows respectable Games against teams like Duke, Central Florida, Houston and Louisville (they lost to Louisville by a TD). Then this years close Games with UCLA and Ole Miss. Those are the classic characteristics of a team on the rise.
If they truly are a team on the rise though, this Game at Cincinnati is one they need to win in order to take that next step. It looks to us as though Cincinnati may be headed in the opposite direction. It’s only been 3 Games and we won’t be too hard on them for the Ohio State loss but quite frankly, they haven’t looked great in their other two Games, both wins. Specifically, their defense, which ranks 10th in the AAC (out of 11 teams) and has been susceptible to the big play.
We agree with the early line move on this Game and think Memphis is the right side here. As mentioned above, it’s a Game they need to have in order to take the next step and most of Our numbers point towards a straight up Memphis win on the road this week making the points a bonus here. Memphis +4