Minnesota
vs.
Michigan
Big 10
College Football
Pick – Analysis
9/27/14
Michigan will host Minnesota in the Big House on Saturday afternoon in a Game that kicks off at 3:30 pm est. and can be seen on ESPN. Michigan opened -8 at 5 dimes sportsbook and has been bet up to -11. The Gophers starting QB Mitch Leidner is listed as questionable as of this writing on Monday with a toe injury.
All eyes will be on the Wolverines as the countdown clock to coach Brady Hoke’s firing has now begun in earnest. Losing to Notre Dame 31-0 was bad enough. But at least that one was on the road. Losing last week at home to Utah 26-10 just drove another nail into the coffin.
It’s not as if the talent isn’t there to win. A look at the box scoreshows that Michigan won the stat battle. But 4 turnovers to Utah’s 1 tells the story. In fact guess who’s dead last in turnover margin in the nation? Yep, the Michigan Wolverines at -10. That’s a reflection on the coach.
against the stiffer competition, this Michigan offense simply hasn’t done much. So much so that their home crowd was actually booing them on Saturday. In comes the Gophers and you would think that this would be a good spot for the Wolverines to finally get things going. Or at least, it better be, because a loss here and you could very well see Brady Hoke canned before he even reaches the locker room after the Game.
As he should be. We often talk about recruiting and the role it plays in handicapping college football. This is a glaring example of why we mention it so often. Here you have THE WINNINGEST team in the history of college football, the Michigan Wolverines, going up against a team that’s pretty much an afterthought. Minnesota will NEVER be as good as Michigan in Our lifetimes. Sure, they may have a year or two where they field decent teams and maybe pull an upset, but even those teams that do that likely won’t actually be more talented than the Michigan team they beat. Just better on that particular day.
Minnesota has won one Game in the series since 1987 and has won 2 Games in the series since 1978. They haven’t won two in a row since the 60’s and the majority of these Games have all been blowouts. Not even close, including the last several years, 42-13, 35-13, 58-0, 29-6, 34-10. It goes on and on. (they did pull the upset in 2005)
The bottom line is, should Michigan come up short here, or for that matter, struggle, even in a winning effort, it falls squarely on the coaches shoulders because there’s really no reason that the Wolverines shouldn’t destroy this Minnesota team. Simply looking at the TALENT they are able to recruit drives this point home.
Yet, the thing is, we have a very unique situation here. When we handicap this Game by traditional methods, using power ratings, prediction models and various other methods used to come up with a point difference between two teams, Minnesota comes up as the right side. So statistically speaking, season to date, Minnesota is the play, even though we know, WITHOUT A DOUBT, that Michigan is the more talented team.
That, is a rare situation and a tricky one for a handicapper. Because we know that if this is the week Michigan puts it all together, it’s good night Gophers. Yet if they continue to struggle, which can only be attributed to coaching or other internal problems, they lose this one against the spread and maybe even outright.
This is being written on Monday afternoon. The Minnesota QB situation doesn’t help matters here, though Our guess is that he will play. Our early week opinion here is that something is very wrong with Michigan and providing this isn’t THE week things turn for the better, it’s a Minnesota call. Minnesota +11