Northwestern Notre Dame Free College Football Pick against the Spread

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Northwestern

vs.

Notre Dame

College Football

Pick – Analysis

11/15/14

Notre Dame just lost any chance they had of making it to the College Football Playoff after losing at Arizona State by 24 points. While the Irish should easily beat Northwestern, will they have the drive to win big here? The Fighting Irish are -17.5 point home favorites with that number rising at Sportsbook.ag

The Irish were so close to winning at Florida State, but that was the only scar in their Schedule. And then Everett Golson imploded against the Sun Devils turning it over five times. Sure, Notre Dame can still make it to a solid bowl Game if they win out, but it’s not what they were hoping for before the season. Keep in mind, the only team that they really blew out this season was hated rival Michigan.

Northwestern has been extremely up and down this season, starting with two early losses, one of them to Northern Illinois, and then they suddenly turned it on destroying Penn State and then beating Wisconsin. However, it’s been all downhill since then with Four straight losses, including a 48-7 blowout at Iowa. The Game against Michigan last weekend was a miserable 10-9 Game.

With how the Wildcats have looked lately, Notre Dame should win big, but then again, will they have the motivation?

The Northwestern offense has done absolutely nothing lately, which is good for Notre Dame, because their defense has been the one keeping opponents in Games. QB Trevor Siemian has five passing TDs and eight interceptions on the year. He could be replaced by freshman Zack Oliver soon. They are averaging a putrid 18 points per Game on the year and haven’t surpassed 20 points in five straight Games.

With a hungry Notre Dame team, this spread might be a little higher. Golson will hope to bounce back in this contest, which he should have no problem doing as he’s been stellar this year with 31 total TDs, but also 11 INTs. Tarean Folston has taken over the run Game, but didn’t really get going against ASU. Still, this isn’t a super explosive offense as they are averaging 35 points per Game, which isn’t even in the top 20 in the nation.

If the Irish come out hungry to get a win and put last weekend’s loss behind them, this is a Game they can cover. Northwestern will have trouble moving the ball all day even with how Notre Dame’s defense has been playing. But the spread will come down to Golson and how the offense comes out of the gates.

The Wildcats are 3-12 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and haven’t covered in five straight non-Conference Games. The Fighting Irish are 3-7-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record and are only 1-3-1 ATS in their last five vs. the Big Ten. The last time these teams played was in 1995 when Northwestern won as a 27-point underdog on the road.

The number here, at -17.5, is a little too high for Our tastes. At -14 or better, we’d have a little more interest in Notre Dame as they should take this Game rather easily. Northwestern has a pretty good defense but we’re going to take the over in this one. We see something along the lines of the Northwestern/Nebraska Game which was a 38-17 final. Over 48.5

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