Notre Dame
vs.
Florida State
College Football
Pick with Analysis
10/18/14
This is the Game of the week for obvious reasons. Even though it doesn’t involve any SEC teams, Notre Dame and Florida State both come in undefeated. The College Football Playoff possibilities are evident. Florida State was an 11.5 point favorite at 5 dimes sportsbook until the Game was taken off the board due to the questionable status of Jameis Winston. We’ll write this Game up as if Winston will play, however that remains up in the air as of Tuesday afternoon.
Both of these teams have been impressive at times this year, but also struggled in Games they weren’t expected to. Notre Dame’s defense was looking like one of the best in the country again until they gave up 43 points to North Carolina this past Saturday. Maybe they were looking ahead, but that’s still a poor effort. Fortunately, Everett Golson and the offense scored 50 points. Other than that, the Fighting Irish have been solid for bettors this season with a 4-2 against the spread record that includes an upset of Stanford.
The same can’t be said about FSU backers as they are a paltry 1-5 ATS on the season. They continue to get money though, so why not keep the lines high? This team has not looked at the same level as last year’s group. We saw it in the 37-31 opening win against Oklahoma State, the 56-41 win over NC State and even last weekend against Syracuse. The defense needs help in multiple areas and can be beat, while the offense is still lacking some fire power.
It should be mentioned that this is the first true road Game for Notre Dame this season, so it’ll be interesting to see what Golson can do in the Tallahassee environment.
From the outside, this looks like an Everett Golson vs. Jameis Winston showdown. And that’s kind of what it is. The better quarterback will probably win this Game. Golson has shown steady improvement this year, while Winston doesn’t have the numbers, but is still a top QB. Although Winston’s status should be monitored as punishment could be possible for him after a hearing this week. FSU still expects him to play.
Golson has been excellent this year for the Irish tossing 16 TDs and Four INTs. William Fuller (504 yards, 7 TDs) is starting to stand out as his top target and running back Tarean Folston had a bit of a coming out party of his own against UNC going for three total TDs and 169 yards from scrimmage. Already with experience going against a top defense like Stanford’s, this unit should be well prepared. The only problem may be the crowd noise.
On the other side, the offense is again a three-headed beast with Winston, RB Karlos Williams and WR Rashad Greene. Winston’s 11 TDs and 5 picks pale in comparison to last year’s numbers, but he’s still leading the team to wins and actually completing a higher percent of his passes. However, this will probably be the toughest defense that FSU has faced this season. Williams missed last week, but should be good to go for this one.
Even with two decent defenses going at it, expect this one to have some points and to be a back-and-forth battle. The spread is a bit interesting, but with it being Golson’s first road Game and how the ND defense performed last week, there will be some money on FSU as always.
The Fighting Irish are 5-0 ATS in their five against teams with a winning record and 5-2 ATS in their last seven on grass. The Seminoles are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home Games and have covered in five straight home Games against teams with a winning record. The last time these teams played was back in 2011.
This Game has been off the board all week. As of Friday evening, one book has posted Florida State -9. At +10 or better we’d have some interest in Notre Dame. Prior to last weeks defensive implosion, we would have loved Notre Dame here. Last weeks Game against NC makes you take a step back.