Oklahoma State
vs.
Baylor
Big 12
College Football
Pick – Analysis
11/22/14
Baylor is coming off a bye and looks ready to finish the season strong, hoping to win the Big 12 and take a spot in the College Football Playoff. Playing at home against a crumbling Oklahoma State team, the Bears are -27 point favorites at Sportsbook.ag with that number rising.
Before hosting Kansas State in the regular season finale, Baylor gets this OK State team and then Texas Tech at AT&T Stadium. If they win out, they will win the Big 12, due to their head-to-head win against TCU, who also has one Conference loss.
As for the Cowboys, they could easily finish the season 5-7 with six straight losses. After this Game, they have to travel to Oklahoma in their finale. After starting the season 5-1 (loss vs. Florida State), their Schedule has picked up and they’ve been crushed against any decent team. Just last week, OK State lost at home 28-7 to Texas. Can this team do anything on the road at Baylor? They haven’t scored more than 14 points in their Four straight losses.
It’s funny how the tides have changed as Oklahoma State won this matchup last year 49-17, although they were still 7.5-point underdogs. Getting the upset here just doesn’t seem as likely with how these teams are playing.
In addition, Baylor is coming off a bye which definitely won’t help. Bryce Petty and the offense are putting up a nation-high 50.1 points per Game, scoring at least 60 points in their only two other Big 12 home Games. Petty has taken the backseat to the running Game a bit this year, but he still has thrown 21 TDs to only three interceptions. Shock Linwood (12 TDs) leads the rushing Game that has compiled 30 touchdowns.
Considering how Oklahoma State’s defense has looked so far, stopping Baylor from scoring 40 points would probably be a good Game for them. On the other side, can they reach more than 14 points this time?
The Cowboys’ offensive line isn’t great and that’s not helping first-year starter Daxx Garman at quarterback. He’s completing less than 55% of his passes on the year for just 12 TDs and 12 INTs. With a running Game that only averages 3.6 yards per carry, where will the points come from? Tyreek Hill has given somewhat of a spark in the rushing Game, but even he was bottled up last week for 16 yards. Usual starting RB Desmond Roland returned, but didn’t do much.
Baylor’s defense has been susceptible, but not against weak offenses. They held Texas to seven points and Kansas to 14, not to mention Oklahoma only put 14 points on them two weeks ago.
The Cowboys have not covered in five straight Games and are 0-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Meanwhile, the Bears are an astounding 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 Games overall and 23-4 ATS in their last 27 home Games. The Cowboys are 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings between these schools, but the favorite is 12-3 ATS in the last 15 matchups.
As a rule, we don’t get involved with high pointspreads such as the one we have here, unless we liked the dog. Too many things can go wrong when laying significant points and those back door covers are killers. In this spot though, it’s the only side we can recommend. Oklahoma State hasn’t topped 14 points for 4 straight Games while giving up 42, 34, 48 and 28. A motivated Baylor team could make this an ugly affair. We’ll lay the big number here as Baylor makes a statement at home. Baylor -27