Oklahoma State
vs.
TCU
College Football
Pick – Analysis
10/18/14
It looked like TCU was headed for a big road win and possibly a Top 5 ranking in the AP Polls last week, but they collapsed and Baylor scored 24 points in the final 10 minutes to win. It was an unfortunate result for the Horned Frogs who led the entire way. They need to make a quick turnaround as they face No. 15 Oklahoma State this week. TCU is a -8.5 point home favorite at sportsbook.ag.
Despite being No. 15, the Cowboys are still a mostly unknown team. The only reason they are ranked is because they have won five straight Games, yet none of those wins are all that impressive. In fact, their best three wins are against three 0-3 teams in the Big 12 and it’s not like they blew those teams out. Just last weekend the Cowboys needed a late kickoff return to beat lowly Kansas. They were given respect after competing with Florida State in the opener, but that Game is long gone and so is QB J.W. Walsh who played that Game.
Even though TCU lost against Baylor, that Game kind of cemented the fact that this team is for real. Even though they beat Oklahoma the previous week, many wondered if they were a one-hit wonder, or a legitimate threat to be a top team in the nation. With how they played at Baylor, it’s likely we haven’t seen the last of the Horned Frogs this season as their Schedule shapes up nicely. We could see seven straight wins from them if they can play like they have the last two weeks.
Oklahoma State is not the 15th best team in the country and they probably shouldn’t be ranked that high. New quarterback Daxx Garman has been respectable, but in his first season as starter, he’s not on the same level as Walsh. For starters, Garman finished 17-of-31 for 161 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT against Kansas last weekend. The Jayhawks are not good. His numbers were similar against Iowa State. against better teams, what can we expect from Garman and this offense?
The Cowboys will likely use RB Desmond Roland as much as possible. Surprisingly, he hasn’t surpassed 100 yards all season, while averaging 4.1 yards per carry and seven touchdowns. Right now, defenses aren’t too scared of Garman and they can focus on stopping the run Game.
TCU’s usually stout defense has been beat up the last couple of weeks, but there is a chance to redeem themselves in this one. OK State is a step down from Oklahoma and Baylor, that’s for sure.
As for the Horned Frogs’ offense, they keep making things happen and continue to put points on the board, whether from special teams or defense. Trevone Boykin still has some work to do at quarterback as he actually wasn’t that good against Baylor (21-for-47, 287 yards, 1 TD) even though TCU scored 58 points. He’s still better than a year ago. The same struggle can be seen from the running Game where B.J. Catalon has only topped 48 yards in one Game.
This will be an interesting Game and should tell us a lot about what the future holds for both of these teams.
The Cowboys haven’t covered in Four straight against teams with a winning record, while they are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 Games following an ATS loss. The Horned Frogs have covered seven straight, but are only 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home Games vs. a team with a winning road record. These are much different teams from previous matchups so it’s hard to look at those Games.
While Our numbers suggest TCU is the better team here, we really can’t get involved with a team that blew a 21 point lead the week before. In fact, back to back Games against Oklahoma and Baylor may very well take their toll on the Horned Frogs. Oklahoma State barely got by lowly Kansas last week however they did have enough talent to give Florida State a Game in week 1. We’re going to go against Our numbers here and back the Cowboys, which is just as much a play against TCU as it is a play on Oklahoma State. Oklahoma State +8.5