Oklahoma
vs.
TCU
College Football
Pick with Analysis
10/4/14
TCU entered the Top 25 this week and probably won’t be there after their upcoming three-Game stretch of Oklahoma, Baylor and Oklahoma State. While both teams are undefeated, the line in this Game is rather interesting. The Sooners, on the road coming off a bye, are only -5 point favorites at sportsbook.ag
Maybe that has to do with last year’s 20-17 win for OU, but that Game didn’t really feel that close. The Horned Frogs only had two wins in Big 12 play last season and their 3-0 start doesn’t have much significance with their best win being against Minnesota. The one thing going for TCU is that they weren’t as bad as their record last year, losing Four Conference Games by three points or less.
But what about Oklahoma, are we convinced they are the best team in the Big 12? Not yet. The Sooners had some trouble two weeks ago at West Virginia winning 45-33. Sure, they covered, but their defense gave up plenty of yards and 33 points.
This Game should look different than last year’s version. For starters, Blake Bell is no longer OU’s quarterback and Trevone Boykin has looked like a better QB, although these next few Games will tell a lot.
The question for the Horned Frogs will be in the running Game where they only rushed for 44 yards in last year’s matchup. They still aren’t great, but the sample size is small through three Games. Boykin leads the team with 183 rushing yards, while running back B.J. Catalon has 172 yards through three. Boykin has been better as a passer with 8 TDs and only one INT, all the while spreading the ball to a multitude of targets.
Playing Oklahoma will be different. This is not Samford or SMU. The Sooners already have the taste of decent football teams having played against Tennessee and West Virginia so a solid TCU team shouldn’t catch them off guard.
Sooners running back Keith Ford is still out with a broken foot, but freshman Samaje Perine picked up the slack vs. WVU and rushed for a cool 242 yards and Four touchdowns.
So far, TCU’s defense has been awesome, but again, have they played an above-average offense? Minnesota isn’t a bad team, but they aren’t a good team either.
Oklahoma’s Trevor Knight still has a ways to go as the quarterback as he’s once again completing less than 60 percent of his passes and only has Four TDs and three INTs through Four Games. If TCU’s run defense is at all respectable, Knight may be forced into a bigger role, and that may not be a good thing.
The Sooners control the battle of the lines, but the verdict is still out on both of these quarterbacks which makes it a little harder to predict this one.
The Sooners are 7-1 ATS in their last eight Games overall and have covered Four straight in the Big 12. The Horned Frogs have covered five straight, but are only 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home Games. There isn’t much history between these teams as TCU is still new to the conference.
When you’re handicapping is statistically driven, Games like this one can be very frustrating. Here we are at the beginning of October and yet we still have very little to go on with these teams, especially in the case of TCU. When you’ve only played 3 Games and two of those teams are Samford and SMU, you simply have to toss the stats. SMU by the way, may very well be the worst college football team a this level to ever take the field and that’s no exaggeration.
We can look at the last two Games in this series being decided by 7 and 3 points and make the assumption that TCU can compete here, but that’s about all we have to go on. Our Score Prediction model has TCU winning this Game outright 23-13 but again, consider the data it has to work with.
This comes down to a gut call and Our gut says the Sooners are the right side here with this line being less than a TD. Oklahoma -5