Oregon
vs.
Utah
PAC-12
College Football
Pick – Analysis
11/8/14
This is Oregon’s last real test in the regular season and a win will lock the Pac-12 North for them. Utah, at No. 22 in the AP Polls, still has a small chance of taking the South. At this point, the Ducks look destined for the College Football Playoff and are a -8 point road favorite at Rice-Eccles Stadium. That line is currently available at 5 dimes sportsbook.
Oregon not only is the current favorite to win the National Championship, but they are led by the Heisman favorite Marcus Mariota. Can they keep winning?
since losing to Arizona, the Ducks have handled UCLA and Washington and are coming off a huge 45-16 win against Stanford. The only thing stopping them right now is themselves.
Utah, meanwhile, is having a nice season, but its offense has had its problems. In fact, the Utes still don’t have a hands down starting quarterback for this Game and are dealing with injuries. Every one of their Pac-12 Games has been close, including wins over UCLA and USC. Their defense is keeping them in Games, and the offense is the reason they lost two Games.
Travis Wilson led the comeback two weeks ago against USC, but he also finished with just 57 passing yards last week at Arizona State. He’s competing with Kendal Thompson for the starting QB gig for this Game. So far, neither quarterback has been able to play two good back-to-back Games, which is why they have this problem. The Utes have been riding running back Devontae Booker for the most part in the Pac-12 as he has five straight 100-plus yard Games. That’ll be the case against Oregon, as they also try and keep Mariota off the field.
Last season, Utah couldn’t stop Mariota as Oregon won 44-21, but as a 28.5-point favorite. Arizona has been the only team that has somewhat contained the Oregon offense. Utah is an underrated group with a solid defense, but if their offense can’t score, it will be tough to beat the Ducks.
Mariota has thrown an interception in two straight Games and that’s the only thing he’s really done wrong this season. He’s completing 68.1% of his passes to go with 26 TDs, while also rushing for 410 yards and seven TDs. The weapons around him continue to make plays as well. Royce Freeman has 5.5 yards per carry and 13 touchdowns, while Byron Marshall has done it all with 38 carries and 40 receptions.
Playing at home under the lights is a boost for the Utes, and this definitely won’t be an easy Game for the Ducks. It’s just a question of what Utah can do on offense. Oregon’s defense has been inconsistent and can be beat. But will Utah’s QB be able to beat them?
The Ducks are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road Games vs. a team with a winning home record and are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 road Games. The Utes have covered in seven straight Games vs. a team with a winning record and are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home Games. Both teams have covered in Four straight overall.
The total here has moved from 62.5 down to 60 and we agree with the move despite the fat that Our model predicts the Game to go over. The feeling here is that while all the focus may be on the offense, particularly Oregons, these are two of the better defenses in college football this year. It may be worth considering under plays in the 1st half as well as the Game itself. Under 60