Penn State
vs.
Rutgers
College Football
Pick with Analysis
9/13/14
Big Ten play is finally here, everyone should be excited, right? Maybe not so much after possibly one of the worst weekends ever for the Conference in Week 2. Although, it can’t be forgotten that both of these teams are 2-0. The SCarlet Knights open as +3.5 point home underdogs at Sportsbook.ag to the Nittany Lions in their first Game ever in the conference.
Rutgers wasn’t expected to do much in its first Big Ten season, but this line says otherwise. Or maybe it’s the bookmakers lack of faith for Penn State. Either way, the SCarlet Knights are still projected to finish towards the bottom of the East standings. Their win over Washington State in the opener looked great, but the Cougars look bad this year and just lost to Nevada.
As for the Nittany Lions, they already have a last-second win in Ireland, and a somewhat convincing win over Akron. Not to mention new they are now eligible for a bowl Game after the sanctions were removed on Monday. With a little added motivation, a solid start, and poor performances from everyone else in the East, they have their eyes on the championship Game. That quest starts with Rutgers.
Penn State’s defense looks improved under new head coach James Franklin and that’ll need to ring true against the Rutgers offense that is suddenly scoring. Granted, this will be the toughest defense that Rutgers has faced by far. Paul James has been a beast with 216 rushing yards and Four TDs. However, the efficiency of Gary Nova at QB (6 TDs, 1INT) may be the more surprising number. Nova’s numbers are of the charts compared to his previous three seasons. But again, how will he look against a more competent defense?
In addition to that, the Penn State offense led by Christian Hackenberg is the most balanced unit that Rutgers has had to face as Washington State does not run the ball. While Zach Zwinak and Bill Belton aren’t Game breakers for the Lions in the backfield, they at least keep defenses honest with Hackenberg. The sophomore QB hasn’t had an amazing start (4 TDs, 4 INTs), but he’s getting the job done. Hackenberg has a future in the NFL as long as he keeps improving and this a Game that he should be able to control, as long as he reduces his current INT rate.
Sure, these teams have the same records, but Penn State controlled their first two Games against better teams, while Rutgers was actually outgained in both of theirs. The home-field factor is iffy, especially after the Knights only beat Howard 38-25 last weekend.
With Penn State possibly pumped up even more after the postseason ban being dropped, most of the money should be coming in on them.
The Nittany Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last five overall, but 1-4 ATS in their last five following an ATS win. The SCarlet Knights are just 1-4 ATS in their last five home Games. The trends point to overs for Penn State and unders for Rutgers, so not much there. The ban is over, so what can Penn State do this season?
This is a huge Game for the Rutgers program. These two teams played regularly from 1977-1995 with Penn State winning all but one of those. The Rutgers program has come a long way since then. This is a team loaded with returning starters that gave Notre Dame a Game in the Pinstripe Bowl last year.
Look for a spirited effort from Rutgers here. Rutgers +3.5