Rutgers
vs.
Ohio State
Big 10
College Football
Pick – Analysis
10/18/14
Rutgers is about to get a real Big Ten awakening over the rest of the season and it starts with this Game against Ohio State. since the Buckeyes lost in early September, they have reeled off three straight wins while scoring at least 50 points in all of them. They are -19.5 point home favorites in this one at 5 Dimes Sportsbook.
The SCarlet Knights already have some good wins on their Schedule winning at Washington State and against Michigan, and they probably should have beaten Penn State. However, the rest of their Schedule is not pretty. They have Four road Games at Ohio State, Nebraska, Michigan State and Maryland to go with a home Game against Wisconsin.
Ohio State looks like they are back to coasting with their last few wins. And considering how well their Schedule lines up, may only have one more Game left (at Michigan State) in which they aren’t double-digit favorites. Granted, the quality of defenses is going to get harder. Putting points on teams like Kent State and Maryland isn’t all that tough.
Both teams are coming off a bye, so there isn’t a big advantage there.
It’s been made clear so far that the Ohio State passing defense isn’t all that great. They will give up big plays and points. That’s where Gary Nova comes in, and he’s definitely been better in his senior season. He’s completing a career high 62% of his passes to go with 13 touchdowns. While he does have seven interceptions, five of them came in one mishap of a Game. Across the board, he’s been a better quarterback this season. He’s spreading the ball decently, but Leonte Carroo (29 receptions, 548 yards, 5 TDs) is his favorite target. The running Game lost Paul James a few weeks ago and hasn’t really picked up since then. Desmon Peoples and Justin Goodwin need to do something in this Game.
Granted, if Rutgers can’t stop the Ohio State offense, it’s unlikely Nova and company will be able to keep up on the scoreboard. The Knights can be beat on the defensive end and that’s where J.T. Barrett steps in. since the loss, he’s been solid, completing more than 72% of his passes in three straight Games to go with a total 15 touchdowns. He’s finding his targets and is moving the chains with his legs. In addition, running back Ezekiel Elliott has carved for 321 yards over the last two weeks. With the way this offense is playing, it’s hard to see how Rutgers can slow them down.
The SCarlet Knights are 6-2 ATS in their last eight overall and 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 vs. a team with a winning record. The Buckeyes have not covered in their last Four vs. a team with a winning road record, but are 27-12-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. This is the first matchup ever between these schools.
Keep an eye on the line in this one. If by chance Ohio State money pushed this number to -21, we could become interested in Rutgers. Taking a look at the yards per point nubers for both teams, we see Ohio State with an offensive ypp number of (very good) and a defensive number of (average). Rutgers has an offensive number of 14.4 (good) and a defensive number of 18.2 (17th best in the nation).
These numbers can be significant here, due to the fact that these teams strength of Schedule is very close. The numbers suggest a Game that can be much closer than the current posted line. So we’ll go ahead and call it an opinion only at +19.5, with more interest possible at Rutgers +21 or better.