Stanford
vs.
Washington
College Football
Pick with Analysis
9/27/14
Do we know how good either of these teams is right now? Not really. In a matchup that has resulted in two close results in the past two years, Stanford is a -7.5 point favorite at Washington at sportsbook.ag.
The Cardinal have shut out two easy teams, but fell at home to USC 13-10. Without a power running Game like they’ve had in recent years, Stanford will lean heavily on their defense to pull out wins this season. That was the goal against USC, and it didn’t work out in the end. against good teams, 10 points isn’t going get you many wins.
Washington may not have a loss, but their results may be a bit more interesting. They barely beat lowly Hawaii 17-16 in their opener and then battled with FCS opponent Eastern Washington to a 59-52 win. Their defense improved over their next two Games with big wins, but neither opponent is something to write home about (Illinois and Georgia State). The Huskies’ only cover of the year was a 44-19 win over Illinois.
The Huskies actually dominated last year’s Game outgaining Stanford by more than 200 yards, but for some reason couldn’t pull out the road win. They threw for 350 yards and rushed for 139 more. It was an improbable win for Stanford to say the least. That result should at least give Washington some confidence going into the matchup.
Stanford’s defense will give plenty of problems to the run-heavy Huskies. Quarterback Cyler Miles has been good so far with eight total TDs and zero interceptions, but if Washington can’t get their run Game going, it’ll fall on his shoulders. Can he lead the team to a victory? Only one receiver, Jaydon Mickens, has more than nine receptions, but John Ross is the deep-ball threat already with three TDs on only six receptions. Running backs LAvon Coleman and Dwayne Washington will try to break through the Stanford line.
The other end is also a question, even though Kevin Hogan has great numbers completing 73 percent of his passes for 7 TDs and only one INT. If this is a close Game, Hogan hasn’t really shown yet that he can be a top QB every week. If they can’t get their ground Game going, which has been the case, it’ll be tough for the Cardinal to cover. Barry Sanders (142 yards) is not his dad and Kelsey Young (122 yards) doesn’t bring much. Will Ty Montgomery break open the Game again with a return touchdown?
This is a big Game for new Washington coach Chris Petersen. If he can pull the home upset, that would be huge for the school as a whole. It should be a similar Game to the USC-Stanford battle, a low-scoring, grind-it-out affair.
Washington is at home, but will that be enough against a dominant defense? For this Stanford team, winning by double-digits won’t be easy in any of their road Games this year and it starts with this one.
The Cardinal are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 road Games, but haven’t covered in Four Games following an ATS win. The Huskies are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 home Games and 4-1 ATS in their last five following an ATS loss. Stanford has covered in Four of the last five meetings in Washington.
The last two in this series were decided by 3 and 4 points with each team winning one. No reason to expect any other outcome here. Washington +7.5