TCU
vs.
Baylor
Big 12
College Football
Pick – Analysis
10/11/14
Baylor will host TCU on Saturday on Saturday in a Game that kickos off at 3:30pm est and can be seen on ABC-TV. Baylor opened -10.5 at 5 dimes sportsbook and there has been very little movement as the line now sits at -10. 64% of the betting action as of Tuesday morning has come in on TCU.
The Horned Frogs are coming off one of the bigger upsets of last week, topping Oklahoma 37-33. No one really took TCU for real going into that Game because they beat up on bad teams and then they took it to the Sooners. They jumped a full 16 spots in the AP Polls from 25 to 9.
Baylor hasn’t had a tough matchup yet, so it’s still hard to gauge them on a national scale right now. Sure, they have covered Four Games (pushed one), but none of their opponents have a winning record right now. On both sides of the ball, it’s still an unknown if this team is better or worse than a year ago.
The fact that TCU held strong in last year’s meeting says a lot going into this one. TCU was 4-8 last year, while Baylor won the Big 12. The Bears were 14-point road favorites, but still got a real test against Casey Pachall at quarterback in a 41-38 Game. At this point, with how Trevone Boykin has looked for the Horned Frogs, there’s no reason TCU can’t keep up with Baylor.
The question may be if TCU will have a letdown because beating Oklahoma is no small feat. They’ll need to be on their A-Game once again and that’s asking a lot from college kids.
The Horned Frogs have been surprisingly consistent on the offensive end led by Boykin at QB. Boykin has done it all with 10 TDs (two INTs) through the air and also leads the team with 260 rushing yards and three more TDs. B.J. Catalon isn’t a bad running back, but Boykin is this offense and he spreads the ball around as well with five guys having between 13 and 19 receptions.
Everyone knows about Baylor’s offense, and they were sort of held in check against Texas last week. Even though the run Game was great, Bryce Petty only completed 7-of-22 passes against the Longhorns. Petty has had injury problems and isn’t having an entirely great season, but is still at 9 TDs, one INT, yet only completing 59.4% of his passes. The Baylor run Game is still churning out yardage behind Shock Linwood (449 yards, 8 TDs) and Johnny Jefferson (336 yards).
TCU’s defense played well against Trevor Knight and Oklahoma, but asking to do that in two straight Games won’t be easy, especially since Baylor is a little more dynamic. Both teams are going to attack the ground Game like in last year’s contest (Baylor 52 carries, TCU 33 carries), but it may come down to the QBs. Last year, Pachall tossed the Game away with three picks. If Petty isn’t on his Game, there’s no reason Boykin can’t outplay him.
A year ago these two hung a total of 79 points on the board in this Game. We see this gane as a MUCH lower scoring affair than a year ago. The total opened 62 and has been bet all the way up to 68. We see this one in the 40’s or 50’s tops, so we’ll go UNDER 68.